Quantified Risks
The risks outlined in these tables would, if they eventuated, impact on the Government’s forecast new operating and/or capital spending amounts.
The Minister of Finance has yet to fully consider the quantum of these risks.
|
Quantified Risks as at 7 December 2005 |
Operating Balance | Gross Debt | Value of Risk ($million) |
Funding received in or since Budget 2005 ($million) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Risks | ||||
| Education – Early Childhood Education | Decrease | - | Up to 54 per annum operating | - |
| Education – Vocational Training | Decrease | - | 7 in 2006/07, 20 in 2007/08 and 24 per annum from 2008/09 | - |
| Revenue – Extension of the Temporary Tax Exemption for New Migrants | Decrease | - | 10-13 per annum operating | - |
| Changed Risks | ||||
| Corrections – Capital Projects | Decrease | Increase | 236 operating and 180 capital | 206 capital and 220 operating |
| Education – Tertiary Education Expenditure Review | Unclear | Increase | Up to 250 capital | - |
| Education – School Property | Decrease | Increase | 125 capital in each of next 4 years, and operating of 7 in 2007/08, 12 in 2008/09 and 18 per annum from 2009/10. | 78 capital in 2005/06, and operating of 3 in 2005/06 and 10 from 2006/07 |
| New Zealand Defence Force – Sale of Skyhawks and Aermacchi Trainers | - | Decrease | 120 capital | - |
| Revenue – Subsidies for Payroll-Related Tax Compliance Costs | Decrease | - | Between 7 and 45 per annum | - |
| Unchanged Risks | ||||
| Child, Youth and Family Services – Residential Services Strategy 2003 | Decrease | Increase | Operating of 8 in 2005/06 rising to 16 from 2009/10, and capital of 30 from 2005/06 to 2007/08 | - |
| Culture and Heritage – Public Broadcasting Programme of Action | Decrease | - | 34 per annum | 11 per annum |
| Economic Development – Large Budget Screen Production Fund | Decrease | - | 17 | 12 in 2005/06 |
| Finance – National Rail Network | - | Increase | 200 to 300 | - |
| Housing – Housing New Zealand Corporation’s Long-Term Capital Requirements | - | Increase | 1,600 over 10 to 15 years | 25 in 2005/06, 65 in 2006/07, 20 in 2007/08 and 21 in 2008/09 |
| Internal Affairs – 2004 and 2005 Storms Response and Infrastructure Costs | Decrease | - | 5 to 20 in 2005/06 | 20 in 2005/06 |
| Justice – New Supreme Court – Cost Escalation | - | Increase | 15 to 20 | - |
| New Zealand Defence Force – Defence – Capital Injections | - | Increase | 554 from 2006/07 to 2010/11 | 410 capital in 2005/06 |
| New Zealand Defence Force – Environmental Clean-up of Devonport Seabed Contamination | Decrease | - | 13 over 2005/06 and 2006/07 | - |
| Revenue – Fringe Benefit Tax Review | Decrease | 24 to 64 per annum | Included in Business package | |
| Revenue – Taxation of Offshore Portfolio Investment and Intermediaries, including Superannuation | Increase or decrease | - | -90 to +60 from 2007 | Included in Business package |
| Youth Development – United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child | Decrease | - | 20 per annum | - |
