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Budget 2005 Home Page Half-Year Economic & Fiscal Update 2005

Quantified Risks

The risks outlined in these tables would, if they eventuated, impact on the Government’s forecast new operating and/or capital spending amounts.

The Minister of Finance has yet to fully consider the quantum of these risks.

Quantified Risks as at
7 December 2005
Operating Balance Gross Debt Value of Risk ($million) Funding received in or since Budget 2005
($million)
New Risks        
Education – Early Childhood Education Decrease - Up to 54 per annum operating -
Education – Vocational Training Decrease - 7 in 2006/07, 20 in 2007/08 and 24 per annum from 2008/09 -
Revenue – Extension of the Temporary Tax Exemption for New Migrants Decrease - 10-13 per annum operating -
Changed Risks        
Corrections – Capital Projects Decrease Increase 236 operating and 180 capital 206 capital and 220 operating
Education – Tertiary Education Expenditure Review Unclear Increase Up to 250 capital -
Education – School Property Decrease Increase 125 capital in each of next 4 years, and operating of 7 in 2007/08, 12 in 2008/09 and 18 per annum from 2009/10. 78 capital in 2005/06, and operating of 3 in 2005/06 and 10 from 2006/07
New Zealand Defence Force – Sale of Skyhawks and Aermacchi Trainers - Decrease 120 capital -
Revenue – Subsidies for Payroll-Related Tax Compliance Costs Decrease - Between 7 and 45 per annum -
Unchanged Risks        
Child, Youth and Family Services – Residential Services Strategy 2003 Decrease Increase Operating of 8 in 2005/06 rising to 16 from 2009/10, and capital of 30 from 2005/06 to 2007/08 -
Culture and Heritage – Public Broadcasting Programme of Action Decrease - 34 per annum 11 per annum
Economic Development – Large Budget Screen Production Fund Decrease - 17 12 in 2005/06
Finance – National Rail Network - Increase 200 to 300 -
Housing – Housing New Zealand Corporation’s Long-Term Capital Requirements - Increase 1,600 over 10 to 15 years 25 in 2005/06, 65 in 2006/07, 20 in 2007/08 and 21 in 2008/09
Internal Affairs – 2004 and 2005 Storms Response and Infrastructure Costs Decrease - 5 to 20 in 2005/06 20 in 2005/06
Justice – New Supreme Court – Cost Escalation - Increase 15 to 20 -
New Zealand Defence Force – Defence – Capital Injections - Increase 554 from 2006/07 to 2010/11 410 capital in 2005/06
New Zealand Defence Force – Environmental Clean-up of Devonport Seabed Contamination Decrease - 13 over 2005/06 and 2006/07 -
Revenue – Fringe Benefit Tax Review Decrease   24 to 64 per annum Included in Business package
Revenue – Taxation of Offshore Portfolio Investment and Intermediaries, including Superannuation Increase or decrease  - -90 to +60 from 2007 Included in Business package
Youth Development – United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child Decrease - 20 per annum -
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