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Economic and Fiscal Forecasts December 2008

Time Series of Fiscal and Economic Indicators

Fiscal Indicators

Years ending
30 June $million
1997 Actual 1998 Actual 1999 Actual 2000 Actual 2001 Actual 2002 Actual 2003 Actual 2004 Actual 2005 Actual 2006 Actual 2007 Actual 2008 Actual 2009 Forecast 2010 Forecast 2011 Forecast 2012 Forecast 2013 Forecast

Revenue and Expenses

Core Crown revenue excl NZS Fund 33,131 34,242 32,880 34,946 37,842 39,945 43,440 46,219 51,045 56,951 58,482 61,671 60,406 59,715 61,144 64,506 68,765
Core Crown expenses 31,368 32,982 33,939 34,829 36,559 37,513 39,897 41,882 44,895 49,320 54,003 56,997 62,741 65,428 68,524 71,953 76,158

Surpluses

Total Crown OBEGAL 1,801 2,345 128 594 1,422 2,471 4,366 5,573 7,075 7,091 5,860 5,637 (550) (4,110) (6,008) (6,305) (6,325)
Total Crown OBEGAL excl NZS Fund 1,801 2,345 128 594 1,422 2,456 4,297 5,526 7,140 7,252 6,250 5,586 (812) (4,029) (5,903) (6,175) (6,175)
Total Crown operating balance 1,863 2,048 1,705 1,405 1,208 2,286 1,621 7,309 5,931 9,542 8,023 2,384 (4,329) (1,990) (3,598) (3,609) (3,333)

Cash Position

Core Crown residual cash 3,913 484 2,048 (386) 349 216 1,217 520 3,104 2,985 2,877 2,057 (6,633) (8,134) (10,868) (10,921) (11,384)

Debt

GSID (excluding settlement cash) 36,236 38,475 37,307 36,580 37,194 36,650 36,617 36,017 35,478 33,903 30,647 31,390 34,786 38,788 50,327 60,451 71,641
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund) 25,562 24,635 22,275 21,900 20,293 19,051 16,093 11,613 4,538 (1,817) (7,467) (12,953) (7,244) 498 7,625 14,603 21,538
Net core Crown debt 25,562 24,635 22,275 21,900 20,293 19,666 17,977 15,569 11,093 8,044 4,109 (19) 5,631 13,349 23,594 33,981 44,748

NZS Fund

NZS Fund net worth ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  615 1,884 3,956 6,555 9,861 12,973 14,212 14,335 17,787 21,486 25,467 29,805
% GDP                                   

Revenue and Expenses

                                 
Core Crown revenue excl NZS Fund 33.5 33.7 31.4 31.5 32.0 31.8 32.8 32.5 33.9 36.3 34.8 34.2 33.3 32.4 31.5 31.4 31.8
Core Crown expenses 31.7 32.5 32.4 31.4 30.9 29.8 30.1 29.4 29.8 31.4 32.1 31.7 34.6 35.5 35.3 35.0 35.2

Surpluses

                                 
Total Crown OBEGAL 1.8 2.3 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.3 3.9 4.7 4.5 3.5 3.1 (0.3) (2.2) (3.1) (3.1) (2.9)
Total Crown OBEGAL excl NZS Fund 1.8 2.3 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.2 3.9 4.7 4.6 3.7 3.1 (0.4) (2.2) (3.0) (3.0) (2.9)
Total Crown operating balance 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.8 1.2 5.1 3.9 6.1 4.8 1.3 (2.4) (1.1) (1.9) (1.8) (1.5)

Cash Position

                                 
Core Crown residual cash 4.0 0.5 2.0 (0.3) 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.1 (3.7) (4.4) (5.6) (5.3) (5.3)

Debt

                                 
GSID (excluding settlement cash) 36.6 37.9 35.6 32.9 31.4 29.1 27.7 25.3 23.5 21.6 18.2 17.5 19.2 21.0 26.0 29.4 33.1
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund) 25.8 24.3 21.3 19.7 17.1 15.1 12.2 8.2 3.0 (1.2) (4.4) (7.2) (4.0) 0.3 3.9 7.1 9.9
Net core Crown debt 25.8 24.3 21.3 19.7 17.1 15.6 13.6 10.9 7.4 5.1 2.4 (0.0) 3.1 7.2 12.2 16.5 20.7

NZS Fund

                                 
NZS Fund net worth ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  0.5 1.4 2.8 4.3 6.3 7.7 7.9 7.9 9.6 11.1 12.4 13.8
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