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Budget 2017 Home Page Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2017

Table 8 - Treasury and Inland Revenue forecasts of tax revenue (accrual)

2015/16
Actual
2016/17
Forecast
2017/18
Forecast
2018/19
Forecast
2019/20
Forecast
2020/21
Forecast
$ million   Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference
Direct tax                  
Individuals                  
Source deductions 27,499 28,919 29,021 (102) 29,987 30,083 (96) 30,295 30,417 (122) 31,818 31,712 106 33,165 32,999 166
Other persons tax 5,786 6,245 6,265 (20) 6,497 6,438 59 6,726 6,572 154 6,968 6,773 195 7,332 7,064 268
Refunds (1,739) (1,598) (1,709) 111 (1,686) (1,704) 18 (1,624) (1,641) 17 (1,528) (1,562) 34 (1,611) (1,560) (51)
Fringe benefit tax 502 530 525 5 554 545 9 580 560 20 604 575 29 624 585 39

Subtotal: Individuals

32,048 34,096 34,102 (6) 35,352 35,362 (10) 35,977 35,908 69 37,862 37,498 364 39,510 39,088 422
Company tax (net) 11,532 13,149 13,316 (167) 13,189 13,377 (188) 14,319 14,440 (121) 15,320 15,458 (138) 16,164 16,282 (118)
Withholding taxes on:                  
Resident interest income 1,667 1,485 1,510 (25) 1,519 1,305 214 1,725 1,415 310 2,325 1,990 335 2,897 2,460 437
Non-resident income 734 593 605 (12) 589 635 (46) 653 687 (34) 740 753 (13) 801 807 (6)
Foreign-source dividends (8) (10) (9) (1) ..  1 (1) ..  1 (1) ..  1 (1) ..  1 (1)
Resident dividend income 626 684 675 9 685 682 3 719 707 12 747 732 15 775 757 18

Subtotal: Withholding tax

3,019 2,752 2,781 (29) 2,793 2,623 170 3,097 2,810 287 3,812 3,476 336 4,473 4,025 448
Total direct tax 46,599 49,997 50,199 (202) 51,334 51,362 (28) 53,393 53,158 235 56,994 56,432 562 60,147 59,395 752
                 
Indirect tax                  
GST (net) 24,902 26,430 26,619 (189) 27,810 28,118 (308) 29,390 29,410 (20) 30,782 30,576 206 31,758 31,622 136
Excise duties on:                  
Alcoholic drinks 671 679 683 (4) 712 706 6 731 723 8 756 756 ..  780 776 4
Tobacco products 362 358 352 6 366 365 1 380 375 5 393 391 2 408 402 6
Petroleum fuels 1,185 1,148 1,218 (70) 1,215 1,240 (25) 1,240 1,253 (13) 1,257 1,265 (8) 1,267 1,280 (13)

Subtotal: Excise duties

2,218 2,185 2,253 (68) 2,293 2,311 (18) 2,351 2,351 ..  2,406 2,412 (6) 2,455 2,458 (3)
Other indirect tax                  
Customs duty 2,442 2,493 2,400 93 2,473 2,469 4 2,549 2,533 16 2,624 2,601 23 2,697 2,670 27
Road user charges 1,381 1,431 1,470 (39) 1,437 1,542 (105) 1,483 1,625 (142) 1,536 1,706 (170) 1,582 1,782 (200)
Gaming duties 275 293 300 (7) 285 301 (16) 291 302 (11) 296 304 (8) 302 305 (3)
Motor vehicle fees 214 237 221 16 235 229 6 239 238 1 241 245 (4) 244 250 (6)
Exhaustible resource levy 28 31 28 3 30 28 2 30 27 3 30 27 3 30 26 4
Approved issuer levy, cheque duty & other 86 86 94 (8) 88 99 (11) 96 109 (13) 105 114 (9) 105 119 (14)

Subtotal: Other indirect tax

4,426 4,571 4,513 58 4,548 4,668 (120) 4,688 4,834 (146) 4,832 4,997 (165) 4,960 5,152 (192)
Total indirect tax 31,546 33,186 33,385 (199) 34,651 35,097 (446) 36,429 36,595 (166) 38,020 37,985 35 39,173 39,232 (59)

Total tax

78,145 83,183 83,584 (401) 85,985 86,459 (474) 89,822 89,753 69 95,014 94,417 597 99,320 98,627 693
Total tax (% of GDP) 30.9% 30.9% 31.1% -0.2% 30.5% 30.7% -0.2% 30.2% 30.2% 0.0% 30.5% 30.3% 0.2% 30.6% 30.4% 0.2%
less Core Crown tax eliminations                  
Core Crown income tax 512 1,106 1,106   708 708 761 761   818 818 878 878  
GST on Crown expenses and departmental outputs 6,694 6,983 6,983   7,231 7,231 7,501 7,501   7,803 7,803 7,984 7,984  
Crown ESCT 452 441 441   455 455 459 459   463 463 464 464  
Crown AIL 44 55 55   55 55 55 55   55 55 55 55  

Core Crown taxation

70,443 74,598 74,999 (401) 77,536 78,010 (474) 81,046 80,977 69 85,875 85,278 597 89,939 89,246 693
Core Crown tax (% of GDP) 27.8% 27.7% 27.9% -0.2% 27.5% 27.7% -0.2% 27.3% 27.3% 0.0% 27.5% 27.3% 0.2% 27.7% 27.5% 0.2%
less Total Crown tax eliminations                  
Income tax from SOEs and CEs 692 524 524   577 577 545 545   606 606 627 627  
Other Crown GST ..  ..  ..    ..  ..  ..  ..    ..  ..  ..  ..   
ESCT from SOEs and CEs 28 33 33   34 34 34 34   34 34 34 34  
Lottery duty 55 53 53   54 54 55 55   56 56 57 57  

Total Crown taxation

69,668 73,988 74,389 (401) 76,871 77,345 (474) 80,412 80,343 69 85,179 84,582 597 89,221 88,528 693
Total Crown tax (% of GDP) 27.5% 27.5% 27.7% -0.2% 27.3% 27.4% -0.1% 27.1% 27.0% 0.1% 27.3% 27.1% 0.2% 27.5% 27.2% 0.3%
Nominal expenditure GDP 253,089 268,877 268,877   281,801 281,801 297,042 297,042   311,862 311,862 324,898 324,898  
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