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Budget 2016 Home Page Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2016

Time Series of Fiscal and Economic Indicators

Fiscal Indicators
June years 2006
Actual
2007
Actual
2008
Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast

$millions

   

Revenue and expenses

   
Core Crown tax revenue 50,973 53,477 56,747 54,681 50,744 51,557 55,081 58,651 61,563 66,636 69,682 71,971 75,678 80,269 84,401
Core Crown revenue 55,499 57,971 61,575 59,191 55,757 57,199 60,428 63,805 67,093 72,213 75,329 78,544 82,098 87,020 91,414
Core Crown expenses 49,084 53,764 56,753 63,711 63,554 70,099 68,939 69,962 71,174 72,363 74,382 77,388 79,719 82,047 84,818

Surpluses

   
Total Crown OBEGAL 7,091 5,860 5,637 (3,893) (6,315) (18,396) (9,240) (4,414) (2,802) 414 668 719 2,455 4,972 6,681
Total Crown operating balance 9,542 8,023 2,384 (10,505) (4,509) (13,360) (14,897) 6,925 2,939 5,771 (2,565) 3,058 4,957 7,606 9,599

Cash position

   
Core Crown residual cash 2,985 2,793 2,057 (8,639) (9,000) (13,343) (10,644) (5,742) (4,109) (1,827) (2,115) (4,162) (2,072) 1,959 3,900

Debt

   
Gross debt1 33,903 30,647 31,390 43,356 53,591 72,420 79,635 77,984 81,956 86,125 86,783 93,880 89,305 84,355 83,568
Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills 35,867 36,805 37,745 50,973 58,891 77,290 84,168 84,286 88,468 93,156 94,064 101,161 96,586 91,636 90,849
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund)2 6,302 1,620 (2,676) 5,633 12,549 23,969 33,475 34,428 34,174 30,862 33,373 35,497 35,412 31,182 24,889
Net core Crown debt2 16,163 13,196 10,258 17,119 26,738 40,128 50,671 55,835 59,931 60,631 62,272 66,334 68,308 66,278 62,349

Net worth

   
Total Crown net worth 83,971 96,827 105,514 99,515 94,988 80,887 59,780 70,011 80,697 92,236 89,302 92,425 97,478 105,161 114,871
Total net worth attributable to the Crown 83,678 96,531 105,132 99,068 94,586 80,579 59,348 68,071 75,486 86,454 83,547 86,641 91,626 99,267 108,912
Nominal expenditure GDP (revised actuals) 164,614 175,367 189,098 189,483 196,701 205,833 215,372 218,827 234,969 241,580 250,126 259,208 273,618 287,449 299,190

% GDP

         

Revenue and expenses

   
Core Crown tax revenue 31.0 30.5 30.0 28.9 25.8 25.0 25.6 26.8 26.2 27.6 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.2
Core Crown revenue 33.7 33.1 32.6 31.2 28.3 27.8 28.1 29.2 28.6 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.0 30.3 30.6
Core Crown expenses 29.8 30.7 30.0 33.6 32.3 34.1 32.0 32.0 30.3 30.0 29.7 29.9 29.1 28.5 28.3
Surpluses    
Total Crown OBEGAL 4.3 3.3 3.0 (2.1) (3.2) (8.9) (4.3) (2.0) (1.2) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.2
Total Crown operating balance 5.8 4.6 1.3 (5.5) (2.3) (6.5) (6.9) 3.2 1.3 2.4 (1.0) 1.2 1.8 2.6 3.2

Cash position

   
Core Crown residual cash 1.8 1.6 1.1 (4.6) (4.6) (6.5) (4.9) (2.6) (1.7) (0.8) (0.8) (1.6) (0.8) 0.7 1.3

Debt

   
Gross debt1 20.6 17.5 16.6 22.9 27.2 35.2 37.0 35.6 34.9 35.7 34.7 36.2 32.6 29.3 27.9
Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills 21.8 21.0 20.0 26.9 29.9 37.5 39.1 38.5 37.7 38.6 37.6 39.0 35.3 31.9 30.4
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund)2 3.8 0.9 (1.4) 3.0 6.4 11.6 15.5 15.7 14.5 12.8 13.3 13.7 12.9 10.8 8.3
Net core Crown debt2 9.8 7.6 5.4 9.0 13.6 19.5 23.5 25.5 25.5 25.1 24.9 25.6 25.0 23.1 20.8

Net worth

   
Total Crown net worth 51.0 55.2 55.8 52.5 48.3 39.3 27.8 32.0 34.3 38.2 35.7 35.7 35.6 36.6 38.4
Total net worth attributable to the Crown 50.8 55.0 55.6 52.3 48.1 39.1 27.6 31.1 32.1 35.8 33.4 33.4 33.5 34.5 36.4
  1. Excludes Reserve Bank settlement cash and bank bills.
  2. Excludes advances.
Economic Indicators
June Years
Annual average % change
2006
 Actual
2007
 Actual
2008
 Actual
2009
 Actual
2010
 Actual
2011
 Actual
2012
 Actual
2013
 Actual
2014
 Actual
2015
 Actual
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
Private consumption 3.6 3.7 2.9 -1.0 2.3 2.0 3.6 2.4 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.3 2.6 2.5 2.3
Public consumption 6.4 3.8 4.9 2.9 -0.4 2.7 0.6 0.3 2.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.4 1.0 1.1
TOTAL CONSUMPTION 4.2 3.7 3.4 0.0 1.6 2.2 2.8 1.9 2.8 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.3 2.2 2.0
Residential investment                -4.8 2.5 -3.8 -21.9 -2.7 -2.6 9.8 13.2 14.9 8.5 5.4 6.5 7.4 5.5 -0.8
Non-market investment                 -1.1 1.3 -8.1 40.0 -7.8 10.5 -30.1 12.8 2.7 27.0 3.0 8.4 -1.9 -8.3 0.5
Market investment                     6.8 2.1 12.6 -13.1 -8.7 8.9 11.8 -0.2 8.3 5.2 2.2 6.1 6.1 7.7 5.0
TOTAL INVESTMENT 2.9 2.1 6.5 -12.0 -6.8 5.6 7.2 3.9 9.3 7.8 3.1 5.8 5.4 5.6 2.8
Stock change (contribution to growth) -0.5 -0.5 0.9 -1.4 0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4
GROSS NATIONAL EXPENDITURE 3.1 2.7 4.9 -4.3 0.7 2.7 4.1 2.2 4.4 3.4 2.7 3.7 3.3 3.3 2.5
Exports 0.9 4.0 3.5 -2.9 4.8 2.2 2.1 3.1 0.1 5.7 3.7 0.4 4.5 2.7 2.3
Imports 1.6 1.7 11.6 -12.0 -1.0 11.4 4.4 2.6 9.0 6.6 0.5 3.8 4.6 4.3 2.4
EXPENDITURE ON GDP 2.9 3.4 2.5 -1.4 2.6 0.2 3.4 2.3 1.9 3.3 3.5 2.6 3.3 2.8 2.5
GDP (production measure) 3.1 3.2 2.0 -1.9 0.6 1.1 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.5
 - annual % change 2.2 3.5 0.1 -2.1 2.3 1.1 2.6 2.5 3.6 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.3
Real GDP per capita 1.9 2.1 1.1 -2.7 -0.6 0.1 2.2 1.7 1.9 1.5 0.5 0.9 1.9 1.9 1.6
Nominal GDP (expenditure basis) 5.0 6.5 7.8 0.2 3.8 4.6 4.6 1.6 7.4 2.8 3.5 3.6 5.6 5.1 4.1
GDP deflator 2.0 3.0 5.2 1.6 1.1 4.4 1.2 -0.7 5.4 -0.5 0.0 1.0 2.2 2.2 1.5
Output gap (% deviation, June year average) 1.2 1.9 2.2 -1.1 -1.4 -2.0 -1.5 -1.3 -0.8 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 -0.3 0.0 0.0
Employment 2.8 1.6 1.3 -0.2 -1.3 1.5 0.9 0.2 3.2 3.2 1.4 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.5
Unemployment (% June quarter s.a.)          3.7 3.7 4.0 6.0 6.9 6.6 6.8 6.5 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.6
Wages (average ordinary-time hourly, ann % change)         4.5 4.4 5.4 4.7 1.1 3.0 2.9 2.2 2.6 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.9
CPI inflation (ann % change)      4.0 2.0 4.0 1.9 1.7 5.3 1.0 0.7 1.6 0.4 0.1 1.5 2.0 1.9 2.1
Merchandise terms of trade (SNA basis)        -1.8 0.2 10.0 -4.3 -3.0 9.7 -1.7 -3.8 16.4 -5.0 -4.7 0.4 3.7 2.3 -0.6
House prices (ann % change) 10.3 13.7 -4.4 -3.2 3.4 0.4 4.2 9.1 6.9 11.1 8.9 7.7 2.3 2.0 2.0
Current account balance - $billion           -12.6 -12.2 -13.4 -9.4 -3.5 -6.0 -7.7 -7.8 -5.8 -8.4 -8.7 -12.0 -11.2 -12.2 -14.4
Current account balance - % of GDP           -7.6 -6.9 -7.1 -4.9 -1.8 -2.9 -3.6 -3.6 -2.5 -3.5 -3.5 -4.6 -4.1 -4.3 -4.8
TWI (June quarter)                          66.7 75.7 73.0 62.3 68.6 70.8 72.4 76.3 81.5 76.2 72.5 70.5 70.2 70.3 69.5
90-day bank bill rate (June quarter)        7.5 8.1 8.8 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 3.4 3.5 2.2 2.2 2.6 3.7 4.2
10-year bond rate (June quarter)            5.8 6.3 6.4 5.6 5.7 5.3 3.7 3.5 4.4 3.6 3.1 3.2 3.9 4.2 4.4

Data for 2016 and subsequently are forecasts. Data for 2015 and prior years are those that were available when the forecasts were finalised.

Summary of Economic Forecasts (March Years)1
(Annual average % change, March years) 2015
Actual
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
Private consumption 2.6 2.7 3.4 2.8 2.6 2.4
Public consumption 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.0 1.1
Total consumption 2.6 2.6 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.1
Residential investment 11.6 4.9 6.7 7.1 6.6 0.5
Market investment 7.7 1.3 5.2 6.1 7.6 5.8
Non-market investment 16.0 12.2 4.7 3.0 -9.5 -0.8
Total investment 9.6 2.8 5.5 5.6 5.6 3.6
Stock change2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4
Gross national expenditure 4.0 2.5 3.6 3.4 3.3 2.8
Exports 4.2 5.5 -0.3 4.3 3.1 2.3
Imports 7.4 2.1 2.4 4.7 4.4 3.0
GDP (expenditure measure) 3.2 3.5 2.5 3.3 2.9 2.6
GDP (production measure) 3.6 2.4 2.8 3.3 2.9 2.6
Real GDP per capita 1.9 0.4 0.7 1.8 1.9 1.7
Nominal GDP (expenditure measure) 3.7 3.7 3.2 5.3 5.3 4.2
GDP deflator 0.5 0.2 0.6 1.9 2.4 1.6
Potential GDP 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5
Output gap (% deviation, March quarter)3 -0.6 -0.9 -0.9 -0.2 0.0 0.0
Employment 3.4 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.7
Unemployment rate4 5.8 5.5 5.7 5.2 4.7 4.5
Participation rate5 69.5 68.5 68.4 68.5 68.8 68.9
Nominal wages6 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.7
CPI inflation7 0.3 0.2 1.3 2.0 1.9 2.1
Terms of trade8 -0.8 -5.0 -1.4 3.3 3.2 -0.3
House prices9 9.0 9.9 9.3 3.3 2.0 2.0
Current account balance            
  $billions -8.3 -8.1 -11.7 -11.5 -11.7 -13.9
  % of GDP -3.5 -3.3 -4.6 -4.3 -4.1 -4.7
Household saving ratio (% of HHDI) -0.7 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1
TWI10 77.9 72.2 71.0 70.1 70.4 69.8
90-day bank bill rate10 3.6 2.6 2.2 2.3 3.5 4.2
10-year bond rate10 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.4

Notes:

  1. Forecasts finalised 13 April 2016.
  2. Contribution to GDP growth.
  3. Estimated as the percentage difference between actual real GDP and potential real GDP.
  4. Percent of the labour force, March quarter, seasonally adjusted.
  5. Percent of the working-age population, March quarter, seasonally adjusted.
  6. Quarterly Employment Survey, average ordinary-time hourly earnings, annual percentage change.
  7. Annual percentage change.
  8. System of National Accounts (SNA) and merchandise basis, annual average percentage change.
  9. Quotable Value New Zealand (QVNZ) House Price Index, annual percentage change.
  10. Average for the March quarter.

Sources: Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, CoreLogic, the Treasury

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