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Budget 2016 Home Page Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2016

Statement of Specific Fiscal Risks

Summary Table

The matters listed below are disclosed as specific fiscal risks because they meet the rules for disclosure outlined before this Statement. Full descriptions of the risks listed below are set out in the next section. Where quantification is possible, this is included in the description of the risk.

Specific fiscal risks as at 29 April 2016
Portfolio name (if appropriate) - specific fiscal risk title Status [20]

Potential policy decisions affecting revenue

ACC - ACC Levies Unchanged
Fire Service Levy New
Revenue – Tax Policy Work Programme Changed
Services Funded by Third Parties Unchanged

Potential policy decisions affecting expenses (expected to be funded from
reprioritisation or the Budget operating allowance):

ACC – Work-related Gradual Process Disease and Infection Unchanged
Budget Operating Initiatives Unchanged
Concessionary Loans Unchanged
Defence Force - Operating and Capital Cost Changed
Fire Service Expenses New
Finance - Tamaki Regeneration Programme Changed
Greater Christchurch Regeneration- Christchurch Central Recovery Plan - Anchor Projects Unchanged
Revenue  - Transformation and Technology Renewal Unchanged
Social Development - Child, Youth and Family Modernisation Changed
Social Development - Welfare Reform Forecast Benefit Savings Unchanged
Social Housing - Social Housing Reform Changed
State Sector Employment Agreements Unchanged
Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment - Tertiary Funding New
Treaty Negotiations - Government Response to Wai 262 Unchanged

Potential capital decisions (expected to be funded from the existing Crown
balance sheet or the Budget capital allowance):

Agency Capital Intentions Unchanged
Finance – Crown Overseas Properties Unchanged
Parliamentary Service – Parliamentary Accommodation Unchanged
Primary Industries  – Investment in Water Infrastructure Unchanged
Transport - Auckland Transport Projects Unchanged
Transport - Regional State Highways Changed
Transport - Support for KiwiRail Unchanged
Unexpected Maintenance for Crown-owned Buildings Changed

Matters dependent on external factors

ACC – ACC Non-earners' Account Unchanged
Defence Force – Potential Rationalisation, Revaluation and Disposal of NZDF Assets Unchanged
Energy and Resources – Crown Revenue from Petroleum Royalties Unchanged
Finance - Air New Zealand Sale of Virgin Australia Shareholding New
Finance – EQC Unchanged
Finance – Goodwill on Acquisition Unchanged
Greater Christchurch Regeneration - Residential Red Zone Unchanged
Housing New Zealand Corporation (HNZC) - Divestment and Development of HNZC Housing Unchanged
Pay Equity and Caregiver Employment Conditions Unchanged
Revenue – Cash Held in Tax Pools Unchanged
Revenue – Student Loans Unchanged
Treaty Negotiations – Relativity Clause Unchanged
Treaty Negotiations – Treaty Settlement Forecasts Unchanged


  • [20] Unchanged - risks where the nature and/or scale of the risk has not changed substantively since the previous Economic and Fiscal Update.
    I - risks where the nature and/or scale of the risk has changed substantively since the previous Economic and Fiscal Update.
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