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Budget 2015 Home Page Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2015

Treasury and Inland Revenue Tax Forecasts

In line with established practice, IR has also prepared a set of tax forecasts, which, like the Treasury's tax forecasts, were based on the Treasury's macroeconomic forecasts. The two sets of forecasts differ from each other because of the different modelling approaches used by the two agencies and the various assumptions and judgements made by the forecasting teams in producing their forecasts.

In this Budget Update, the two sets of tax forecasts are quite close to each other by historical standards, with all the differences in the forecasts of total core Crown tax in any one year being less than $250 million (0.1% of GDP). In most forecast years, the Treasury's total tax forecasts are higher than Inland Revenue's although there are distinct differences across the major tax types. For instance, overall, the Treasury has the higher company tax forecasts, but IR has the higher source deductions forecasts.

The following two tables detail the respective forecasts by the Treasury and IR for tax revenue and receipts across each of the various sources:

Table 8 Treasury and IR forecasts of tax revenue (accrual)

Table 9 Treasury and IR forecasts of tax receipts (cash)

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