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Budget 2015 Home Page Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2015

Time Series of Fiscal and Economic Indicators

Fiscal Indicators
June years 2005
 Actual
2006
 Actual
2007
 Actual
2008
 Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
2019
Forecast

$millions

   

Revenue and expenses

   
Core Crown tax revenue 47,468 50,973 53,477 56,747 54,681 50,744 51,557 55,081 58,651 61,474 66,077 68,868 72,544 76,811 80,472
Core Crown revenue 51,045 55,735 58,211 61,819 59,482 56,216 57,550 60,565 64,149 67,297 71,884 74,921 78,945 83,517 87,361
Core Crown expenses 44,895 49,320 54,003 56,997 64,002 64,013 70,450 69,076 70,306 71,467 73,090 74,935 77,110 80,831 83,444

Surpluses

   
Total Crown OBEGAL 7,075 7,091 5,860 5,637 (3,893) (6,315) (18,396) (9,240) (4,414) (2,933) (684) 176 1,476 1,995 3,624
Total Crown operating balance 5,931 9,542 8,023 2,384 (10,505) (4,509) (13,360) (14,897) 6,925 2,808 (634) 2,990 4,267 4,871 6,597

Cash position

   
Core Crown residual cash 3,104 2,985 2,877 2,057 (8,639) (9,000) (13,343) (10,644) (5,742) (4,109) (2,674) (4,166) (1,612) (158) 1,706

Debt

   
Gross debt1 35,478 33,903 30,647 31,390 43,356 53,591 72,420 79,635 77,984 81,956 83,910 87,162 93,641 88,824 83,736
Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills 35,478 35,867 36,805 37,745 50,973 58,891 77,290 84,168 84,286 88,468 89,994 93,187 99,591 94,774 89,686
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund)2 13,324 6,302 1,620 (2,676) 5,633 12,549 23,969 33,475 34,428 34,174 32,569 34,683 34,142 32,083 27,995
Net core Crown debt2 19,879 16,163 13,380 10,258 17,119 26,738 40,128 50,671 55,835 59,931 61,673 65,597 67,104 67,219 65,467

Net worth

   
Total Crown net worth 54,240 83,971 96,827 105,514 99,515 94,988 80,887 59,780 70,011 80,779 79,984 83,035 87,360 92,329 99,002
Total net worth attributable to the Crown 54,025 83,678 96,531 105,132 99,068 94,586 80,579 59,348 68,071 75,568 74,803 77,812 82,100 87,000 93,628
Nominal GDP (revised actuals) 157,097 164,969 174,967 188,108 187,493 195,401 203,757 212,334 216,590 234,184 239,771 249,890 262,825 275,207 285,765

% GDP

         

Revenue and expenses

   
Core Crown tax revenue 30.2 30.9 30.6 30.2 29.2 26.0 25.3 25.9 27.1 26.3 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.2
Core Crown revenue 32.5 33.8 33.3 32.9 31.7 28.8 28.2 28.5 29.6 28.7 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.3 30.6
Core Crown expenses 28.6 29.9 30.9 30.3 34.1 32.8 34.6 32.5 32.5 30.5 30.5 30.0 29.3 29.4 29.2

Surpluses

   
Total Crown OBEGAL 4.5 4.3 3.3 3.0 (2.1) (3.2) (9.0) (4.4) (2.0) (1.3) (0.3) 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.3
Total Crown operating balance 3.8 5.8 4.6 1.3 (5.6) (2.3) (6.6) (7.0) 3.2 1.2 (0.3) 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.3

Cash position

   
Core Crown residual cash 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.1 (4.6) (4.6) (6.5) (5.0) (2.7) (1.8) (1.1) (1.7) (0.6) (0.1) 0.6

Debt

   
Gross debt1 22.6 20.6 17.5 16.7 23.1 27.4 35.5 37.5 36.0 35.0 35.0 34.9 35.6 32.3 29.3
Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills 22.6 21.7 21.0 20.1 27.2 30.1 37.9 39.6 38.9 37.8 37.5 37.3 37.9 34.4 31.4
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund)2 8.5 3.8 0.9 (1.4) 3.0 6.4 11.8 15.8 15.9 14.6 13.6 13.9 13.0 11.7 9.8
Net core Crown debt2 12.7 9.8 7.6 5.5 9.1 13.7 19.7 23.9 25.8 25.6 25.7 26.3 25.5 24.4 22.9

Net worth

   
Total Crown net worth 34.5 50.9 55.3 56.1 53.1 48.6 39.7 28.2 32.3 34.5 33.4 33.2 33.2 33.5 34.6
Total net worth attributable to the Crown 34.4 50.7 55.2 55.9 52.8 48.4 39.5 28.0 31.4 32.3 31.2 31.1 31.2 31.6 32.8
  1. Excludes Reserve Bank settlement cash and bank bills
  2. Excludes advances
Economic Indicators

March years
Annual average % change

2005
Actual
2006
Actual
2007
Actual
2008
Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
2019
Forecast
Private consumption 5.4 4.9 2.3 3.7 -1.6 1.7 2.1 2.7 2.5 2.9 3.7 3.9 2.8 2.7 2.8
Public consumption 4.8 7.1 4.1 4.7 4.0 -0.5 2.0 1.5 -0.6 2.7 3.2 0.9 0.4 2.3 1.9
TOTAL CONSUMPTION 5.3 5.5 2.7 4.0 -0.2 1.1 2.0 2.4 1.7 2.8 3.5 3.2 2.3 2.6 2.6
Residential investment 2.3 -4.9 -1.1 1.8 -21.2 -9.0 1.6 -0.2 17.8 16.7 13.9 11.9 5.3 6.0 0.2
Non-market investment 10.8 9.5 -0.7 -6.7 24.0 -1.0 0.6 -9.0 -21.1 12.5 -6.4 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4
Market investment 10.0 10.9 -2.6 12.4 -5.3 -10.6 4.1 9.8 7.0 8.3 6.7 5.4 5.1 2.9 2.4
TOTAL INVESTMENT 8.0 5.7 -1.9 7.7 -7.5 -9.2 3.3 5.5 7.1 10.4 7.5 8.1 5.0 3.6 1.8
Stock change (contribution to growth) 0.2 -0.3 -0.8 0.8 -0.3 -0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1
GROSS NATIONAL EXPENDITURE 6.2 5.1 0.6 5.7 -2.3 -2.0 3.0 3.5 2.4 4.6 4.6 4.2 3.2 3.1 2.5
Exports 3.1 -0.4 3.5 3.9 -2.8 4.1 2.8 2.3 3.1 0.2 2.2 0.5 3.5 3.2 3.3
Imports 13.2 4.8 -1.6 10.9 -3.6 -9.2 11.4 6.7 1.3 8.0 7.0 3.5 4.5 4.0 3.3
EXPENDITURE ON GDP 3.3 3.5 2.1 3.6 -2.1 2.3 0.7 2.2 2.9 2.4 3.2 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.4
GDP (production measure) 3.8 3.4 2.7 3.0 -1.6 -0.3 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.5 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.4
- annual % change 2.5 3.3 3.3 1.6 -2.9 1.7 1.2 2.7 1.9 3.1 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.0
Real GDP per capita 2.4 2.2 1.6 2.0 -2.4 -1.3 0.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.5
Nominal GDP (expenditure basis) 7.0 5.5 5.1 8.3 0.9 2.7 4.6 4.3 2.4 6.8 3.9 3.3 5.3 4.8 4.1
GDP deflator 3.6 1.9 3.0 4.5 3.0 0.4 3.8 2.0 -0.5 4.2 0.7 0.0 2.4 2.0 1.7
Output gap (% deviation, March year average) 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.7 -0.4 -1.9 -2.0 -1.7 -1.4 -0.9 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4
Employment 3.6 2.8 2.1 1.5 0.2 -1.5 0.9 1.2 0.1 2.4 3.3 2.3 1.6 1.4 1.2
Unemployment (% March quarter s.a.) 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 5.2 6.2 6.6 6.9 6.3 6.1 5.6 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.5
Wages (average ordinary-time hourly, ann % change) 3.6 5.3 4.6 4.7 5.4 1.0 2.6 3.8 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.3
CPI inflation (ann % change) 2.8 3.3 2.5 3.4 3.0 2.0 4.5 1.6 0.9 1.5 0.2 1.4 2.1 2.0 2.1
Merchandise terms of trade (SNA basis) 4.8 -1.5 -0.9 8.3 0.7 -8.0 10.8 1.4 -6.0 13.7 0.2 -2.9 2.9 0.1 -0.4
House prices (ann % change) 13.5 12.2 11.7 2.8 -9.2 6.4 -1.5 3.6 7.6 8.0 6.8 5.2 3.0 2.4 2.0
Current account balance - $billions -7.9 -12.7 -11.6 -12.4 -13.3 -2.9 -5.7 -6.7 -7.9 -6.0 -9.8 -13.7 -12.8 -13.8 -15.1
Current account balance - % of GDP -5.1 -7.8 -6.8 -6.7 -7.1 -1.5 -2.8 -3.2 -3.7 -2.6 -4.1 -5.6 -4.9 -5.1 -5.3
TWI (March quarter) 75.1 72.4 72.6 75.6 58.0 68.2 68.9 73.5 75.9 80.0 77.9 77.9 77.9 77.9 77.1
90-day bank bill rate (March quarter) 6.9 7.6 7.8 8.8 3.7 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.6 3.6 3.7 4.3 4.8
10-year bond rate (March quarter) 6.0 5.7 5.9 6.4 4.6 5.9 5.6 4.0 3.7 4.6 3.3 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.1

Data for 2015 and subsequently are forecasts (except for financial market data where 2015 are actuals). Data for 2014 and prior years are those that were available when the forecasts were finalised.

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