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Budget 2013 Home Page Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2013

Table 8 - Treasury and IRD forecasts of tax revenue (accrual)

Table 8 - Treasury and IRD forecasts of tax revenue (accrual)
$ million 2011/12
Actual		 2012/13
Forecast		 2013/14
Forecast 		2014/15
Forecast		 2015/16
Forecast 		2016/17
Forecast
Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference
Direct tax                  
Individuals                  
Source deductions 21,632 22,815 22,770 45 24,138 24,113 25 25,327 25,316 11 26,558 26,526 32 27,980 27,940 40
Other persons tax 4,232 5,026 4,945 81 5,083 5,045 38 5,438 5,302 136 5,620 5,437 183 5,737 5,512 225
Refunds (1,736) (1,473) (1,500) 27 (1,488) (1,510) 22 (1,508) (1,495) (13) (1,523) (1,495) (28) (1,525) (1,470) (55)
Fringe benefit tax 462 460 474 (14) 477 478 (1) 499 497 2 518 511 7 540 525 15
Subtotal: Individuals 24,590 26,828 26,689 139 28,210 28,126 84 29,756 29,620 136 31,173 30,979 194 32,732 32,507 225
Company tax (net) 8,617 9,451 9,723 (272) 10,067 10,184 (117) 10,674 10,521 153 11,137 10,944 193 11,476 11,222 254
Withholding taxes on:                  
Resident interest income 1,679 1,602 1,636 (34) 1,671 1,601 70 1,869 1,831 38 2,329 2,371 (42) 2,685 2,951 (266)
Non-resident income 500 448 417 31 447 464 (17) 497 512 (15) 558 569 (11) 606 612 (6)
Foreign-source dividends 4 ..  1 (1) ..  1 (1) ..  1 (1) ..  1 (1) ..  1 (1)
Resident dividend income 292 394 400 (6) 607 582 25 623 593 30 644 607 37 657 613 44
Subtotal: Withholding tax 2,475 2,444 2,454 (10) 2,725 2,648 77 2,989 2,937 52 3,531 3,548 (17) 3,948 4,177 (229)
Total income tax 35,682 38,723 38,866 (143) 41,002 40,958 44 43,419 43,078 341 45,841 45,471 370 48,156 47,906 250
Other: Estate and gift duties ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  .. 
Total direct tax 35,682 38,723 38,866 (143) 41,002 40,958 44 43,419 43,078 341 45,841 45,471 370 48,156 47,906 250
Indirect tax                  
GST (net) 20,646 21,602 21,677 (75) 22,830 22,805 25 23,971 23,868 103 24,984 24,942 42 25,782 25,912 (130)
Excise duties on:                  
Alcoholic drinks 656 656 670 (14) 678 703 (25) 706 727 (21) 735 761 (26) 765 798 (33)
Tobacco products 244 288 300 (12) 277 264 13 282 275 7 289 284 5 300 289 11
Petroleum fuels 847 878 890 (12) 931 938 (7) 991 1,022 (31) 1,056 1,075 (19) 1,083 1,104 (21)
Subtotal: excise duties 1,747 1,822 1,860 (38) 1,886 1,905 (19) 1,979 2,024 (45) 2,080 2,120 (40) 2,148 2,191 (43)
Other indirect tax                  
Customs duty 2,038 2,037 2,100 (63) 2,141 2,210 (69) 2,236 2,200 36 2,346 2,345 1 2,415 2,460 (45)
Road user charges 1,045 1,062 1,080 (18) 1,164 1,210 (46) 1,264 1,320 (56) 1,363 1,425 (62) 1,426 1,480 (54)
Gaming duties 271 275 271 4 278 274 4 283 276 7 288 280 8 293 283 10
Motor vehicle fees 175 178 180 (2) 187 185 2 193 190 3 198 195 3 203 200 3
Exhaustible resource levy 36 36 32 4 36 33 3 36 32 4 36 31 5 36 31 5
Approved issuer levy, cheque duty & other 94 85 83 2 92 89 3 92 94 (2) 92 91 1 92 89 3
Subtotal: Other indirect tax 3,659 3,673 3,746 (73) 3,898 4,001 (103) 4,104 4,112 (8) 4,323 4,367 (44) 4,465 4,543 (78)
Total indirect tax 26,052 27,097 27,283 (186) 28,614 28,711 (97) 30,054 30,004 50 31,387 31,429 (42) 32,395 32,646 (251)
Total tax 61,734 65,820 66,149 (329) 69,616 69,669 (53) 73,473 73,082 391 77,228 76,900 328 80,551 80,552 (1)
Total tax (% of GDP) 29.61% 30.78% 30.93% -0.15% 30.55% 30.57% -0.02% 30.88% 30.71% 0.16% 31.14% 31.01% 0.13% 31.32% 31.32% 0.00%
less Core Crown tax eliminations                  
Core Crown income tax 160 890 890   478 478 511 511   551 551 594 594  
GST on Crown expenses and departmental outputs 6,075 6,196 6,196   6,306 6,306 6,427 6,427   6,535 6,535 6,668 6,668  
Crown ESCT 382 418 418   419 419 425 425   433 433 439 439  
Crown AIL 36 30 30   30 30 30 30   30 30 30 30  
Core Crown taxation 55,081 58,286 58,615 (329) 62,383 62,436 (53) 66,080 65,689 391 69,679 69,351 328 72,820 72,821 (1)
Core Crown tax (% of GDP) 26.42% 27.26% 27.41% -0.15% 27.37% 27.40% -0.02% 27.77% 27.61% 0.16% 28.10% 27.96% 0.13% 28.31% 28.31% 0.00%
less Total Crown tax eliminations                  
Income tax from SOEs and CEs 348 387 387   545 545 617 617   704 704 763 763  
Other Crown GST ..  ..  ..    ..  ..  ..  ..    ..  ..  ..  ..   
ESCT from SOEs and CEs 14 10 10   11 11 11 11   11 11 11 11  
Lottery duty 54 50 50   54 54 58 58   61 61 64 64  
Total Crown taxation 54,665 57,839 58,168 (329) 61,773 61,826 (53) 65,394 65,003 391 68,903 68,575 328 71,982 71,983 (1)
Total Crown tax (% of GDP) 26.22% 27.05% 27.20% -0.15% 27.11% 27.13% -0.02% 27.48% 27.32% 0.16% 27.78% 27.65% 0.13% 27.98% 27.99% 0.00%
Nominal GDP 208,467 213,844 213,844   227,892 227,892 237,954 237,954   248,004 248,004 257,219 257,219  
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