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Budget 2013 Home Page Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2013

Treasury and Inland Revenue Tax Forecasts

In line with established practice, the Inland Revenue Department (IRD) has also prepared a set of tax forecasts, which, like the Treasury's tax forecasts, were based on the Treasury's macroeconomic forecasts. The two sets of forecasts differ from each other because of the different modelling approaches used by the two agencies and the various assumptions and judgements made by the forecasting teams in producing their forecasts.

In this Budget Update, the two sets of tax forecasts are quite close to each other, with the largest difference in any one year being just under $400 million (0.2% of GDP). Neither agency's forecasts are consistently higher or lower than the other agency's forecasts, and the differences are spread across a number of tax types.

The following two tables detail the respective forecasts by the Treasury and the IRD for tax revenue and receipts across each of the various sources:

Table 8  Treasury and IRD forecasts of tax revenue (accrual)

Table 9  Treasury and IRD forecasts of tax receipts (cash)

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