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Budget 2013 Home Page Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2013

Time Series of Fiscal and Economic Indicators

Fiscal Indicators
June Years 2003
Actual
2004
 Actual
2005
 Actual
2006
 Actual
2007
 Actual
2008
 Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Forecast
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast

$ millions

 

Revenue and Expenses

 
Core Crown revenue 43,440 46,219 51,045 55,735 58,211 61,819 59,482 56,216 57,550 60,565 63,809 68,382 72,279 75,845 79,488
Core Crown expenses 39,897 41,882 44,895 49,320 54,003 56,997 64,002 64,013 70,450 69,076 71,649 72,367 73,457 75,178 77,191

Surpluses

 
Total Crown OBEGAL 4,366 5,573 7,075 7,091 5,860 5,637 (3,893) (6,315) (18,396) (9,240) (6,285) (2,033) 75 797 2,618
Total Crown operating balance 1,621 7,309 5,931 9,542 8,023 2,384 (10,505) (4,509) (13,360) (14,897) 1,918 358 2,715 3,486 5,413

Cash Position

 
Core Crown residual cash 1,217 520 3,104 2,985 2,877 2,057 (8,639) (9,000) (13,343) (10,644) (7,750) (6,886) (3,668) (1,536) (553)

Debt

 
Gross debt1 36,617 36,017 35,478 33,903 30,647 31,390 43,356 53,591 72,420 79,635 78,636 87,686 83,157 87,505 93,945
Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills 36,617 36,017 35,478 35,867 36,805 37,745 50,973 58,891 77,290 84,168 84,427 93,477 88,948 93,296 99,736
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund)2 22,647 19,902 13,324 6,302 1,620 (2,676) 5,633 12,549 23,969 33,475 36,615 42,066 43,938 43,476 42,125
Net core Crown debt2 24,531 23,858 19,879 16,163 13,380 10,258 17,119 26,738 40,128 50,671 57,945 64,765 68,233 69,680 70,275

Net Worth

 
Total Crown net worth 28,012 39,595 54,240 83,971 96,827 105,514 99,515 94,988 80,887 59,780 63,270 65,182 69,429 74,503 80,006
Total net worth attributable to the Crown 27,918 39,456 54,025 83,678 96,531 105,132 99,068 94,586 80,579 59,348 61,476 61,997 64,843 68,502 73,930
Nominal GDP 135,716 146,344 155,358 163,232 173,214 185,678 185,487 191,798 200,234 208,467 213,844 227,892 237,954 248,004 257,219

% GDP

         

Revenue and Expenses

 
Core Crown revenue 32.0 31.6 32.9 34.1 33.6 33.3 32.1 29.3 28.7 29.1 29.8 30.0 30.4 30.6 30.9
Core Crown expenses 29.4 28.6 28.9 30.2 31.2 30.7 34.5 33.4 35.2 33.1 33.5 31.8 30.9 30.3 30.0

Surpluses

 
Total Crown OBEGAL 3.2 3.8 4.6 4.3 3.4 3.0 (2.1) (3.3) (9.2) (4.4) (2.9) (0.9) 0.0 0.3 1.0
Total Crown operating balance 1.2 5.0 3.8 5.8 4.6 1.3 (5.7) (2.4) (6.7) (7.1) 0.9 0.2 1.1 1.4 2.1

Cash Position

 
Core Crown residual cash 0.9 0.4 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.1 (4.7) (4.7) (6.7) (5.1) (3.6) (3.0) (1.5) (0.6) (0.2)

Debt

 
Gross debt1 27.0 24.6 22.8 20.8 17.7 16.9 23.4 27.9 36.2 38.2 36.8 38.5 34.9 35.3 36.5
Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills 27.0 24.6 22.8 22.0 21.2 20.3 27.5 30.7 38.6 40.4 39.5 41.0 37.4 37.6 38.8
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund)2 16.7 13.6 8.6 3.9 0.9 (1.4) 3.0 6.5 12.0 16.1 17.1 18.5 18.5 17.5 16.4
Net core Crown debt2 18.1 16.3 12.8 9.9 7.7 5.5 9.2 13.9 20.0 24.3 27.1 28.4 28.7 28.1 27.3

Net Worth

 
Total Crown net worth 20.6 27.1 34.9 51.4 55.9 56.8 53.7 49.5 40.4 28.7 29.6 28.6 29.2 30.0 31.1
Total net worth attributable to the Crown 20.6 27.0 34.8 51.3 55.7 56.6 53.4 49.3 40.2 28.5 28.7 27.2 27.3 27.6 28.7
  1. Excludes Reserve Bank settlement cash and bank bills
  2. Excludes advances
Economic Indicators
March Years
Annual average % change
2003
 Actual
2004
 Actual
2005
 Actual
2006
 Actual
2007
 Actual
2008
 Actual
2009
 Actual
2010
 Actual
2011
 Actual
2012
 Actual
2013
Forecast
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
Private consumption 4.9 6.5 4.7 4.7 2.8 3.5 -1.6 0.6 2.0 2.4 1.9 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.0
Public consumption 0.7 5.1 4.6 4.7 3.4 4.9 4.5 0.2 1.4 1.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.6
TOTAL CONSUMPTION 4.0 6.2 4.7 4.7 2.9 3.8 -0.3 0.5 1.9 2.3 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.7
Residential investment                23.6 14.7 2.3 -5.0 -2.1 1.8 -21.3 -9.1 1.8 -10.6 16.8 29.2 21.0 11.8 2.4
Non-market investment                 10.7 15.5 10.8 5.7 1.8 -8.0 22.6 0.0 -2.9 -14.8 -14.2 -0.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Market investment                     2.8 12.4 11.6 11.0 -2.9 10.6 -5.2 -15.2 5.4 8.7 7.9 14.8 6.3 1.9 0.3
TOTAL INVESTMENT 7.9 13.2 8.3 6.5 -2.8 7.1 -8.1 -11.6 3.0 2.3 8.0 19.7 9.6 4.1 0.9
Stock change (contribution to growth) -0.1 0.3 0.3 -0.5 -1.1 1.2 -0.5 -1.2 1.2 0.5 -0.7 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0
GROSS NATIONAL EXPENDITURE 4.6 7.8 5.7 4.7 0.3 5.6 -2.1 -3.0 2.5 3.2 2.1 6.1 3.9 2.6 1.5
Exports 8.0 0.9 4.8 -0.1 3.3 3.5 -2.7 5.0 2.7 2.5 2.6 -2.8 2.6 2.3 2.6
Imports 6.9 12.8 12.2 4.4 -1.3 10.6 -4.0 -8.9 11.3 6.2 -0.5 7.6 6.2 3.1 1.3
EXPENDITURE ON GDP 5.0 4.1 3.6 3.4 1.6 3.5 -1.8 1.5 0.2 2.2 2.9 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.2
GDP (production measure) 4.7 4.3 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.9 -1.9 -0.4 1.5 1.9 2.5 2.4 3.0 2.6 2.2
 - annual % change 4.4 5.3 2.3 3.4 3.7 1.2 -3.0 1.8 0.8 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.5 2.2
Real GDP per capita 3.2 2.4 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.8 -2.8 -1.5 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.3
Nominal GDP (expenditure basis) 5.2 6.9 7.0 5.5 5.0 8.3 0.9 2.3 4.6 3.8 2.7 6.4 4.6 4.3 3.9
GDP deflator 0.2 2.6 3.3 2.0 3.3 4.6 2.7 0.7 4.5 1.6 -0.2 3.9 1.9 1.6 1.6
Output gap (% deviation, March year average) 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.9 -0.3 -2.0 -1.9 -1.9 -1.3 -0.6 0.0 0.3 0.1
Employment 2.8 3.0 3.6 2.8 2.2 1.3 0.9 -1.3 1.2 1.4 -0.5 1.5 2.7 1.4 1.2
Unemployment (% March quarter s.a.)          5.0 4.3 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 5.2 6.1 6.6 6.7 6.9 6.0 5.9 5.5 5.2
Wages (average ordinary-time hourly, ann % change)         2.3 3.5 3.6 5.4 4.6 4.7 5.5 1.0 2.6 3.8 2.0 2.8 2.2 2.8 3.3
CPI inflation (ann % change)      2.5 1.5 2.8 3.3 2.5 3.4 3.0 2.0 4.5 1.6 0.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2
Merchandise terms of trade (SNA basis)       -5.6 4.4 3.4 -1.9 -1.2 8.4 0.0 -7.6 10.2 1.2 -6.6 10.0 0.9 1.2 1.0
Current account balance - $billion           -4.2 -6.2 -9.5 -14.0 -13.5 -14.6 -14.6 -3.4 -7.2 -9.1 -10.1 -10.9 -12.3 -14.3 -16.6
Current account balance - % of GDP           -3.1 -4.3 -6.2 -8.6 -8.0 -7.9 -7.9 -1.8 -3.6 -4.4 -4.8 -4.8 -5.2 -5.8 -6.5
TWI (March quarter)                          60.6 66.9 69.6 68.3 68.8 71.9 53.7 65.3 67.2 72.5 75.9 77.0 76.1 73.5 69.2
90-day bank bill rate (March quarter)        5.8 5.5 6.9 7.6 7.8 8.8 3.7 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.6 4.3 4.8
10-year bond rate (March quarter)            6.0 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.9 6.4 4.6 5.9 5.6 4.0 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.2

Based on data available at 17 April 2013. CPI, TWI and interest rate figures are actuals.

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