Time Series of Fiscal and Economic Indicators
| June Years |
2003 Actual |
2004 Actual |
2005 Actual |
2006 Actual |
2007 Actual |
2008 Actual |
2009 Actual |
2010 Actual |
2011 Actual |
2012 Actual |
2013 Forecast |
2014 Forecast |
2015 Forecast |
2016 Forecast |
2017 Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$ millions |
|||||||||||||||
Revenue and Expenses |
|||||||||||||||
| Core Crown revenue | 43,440 | 46,219 | 51,045 | 55,735 | 58,211 | 61,819 | 59,482 | 56,216 | 57,550 | 60,565 | 63,809 | 68,382 | 72,279 | 75,845 | 79,488 |
| Core Crown expenses | 39,897 | 41,882 | 44,895 | 49,320 | 54,003 | 56,997 | 64,002 | 64,013 | 70,450 | 69,076 | 71,649 | 72,367 | 73,457 | 75,178 | 77,191 |
Surpluses |
|||||||||||||||
| Total Crown OBEGAL | 4,366 | 5,573 | 7,075 | 7,091 | 5,860 | 5,637 | (3,893) | (6,315) | (18,396) | (9,240) | (6,285) | (2,033) | 75 | 797 | 2,618 |
| Total Crown operating balance | 1,621 | 7,309 | 5,931 | 9,542 | 8,023 | 2,384 | (10,505) | (4,509) | (13,360) | (14,897) | 1,918 | 358 | 2,715 | 3,486 | 5,413 |
Cash Position |
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| Core Crown residual cash | 1,217 | 520 | 3,104 | 2,985 | 2,877 | 2,057 | (8,639) | (9,000) | (13,343) | (10,644) | (7,750) | (6,886) | (3,668) | (1,536) | (553) |
Debt |
|||||||||||||||
| Gross debt1 | 36,617 | 36,017 | 35,478 | 33,903 | 30,647 | 31,390 | 43,356 | 53,591 | 72,420 | 79,635 | 78,636 | 87,686 | 83,157 | 87,505 | 93,945 |
| Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills | 36,617 | 36,017 | 35,478 | 35,867 | 36,805 | 37,745 | 50,973 | 58,891 | 77,290 | 84,168 | 84,427 | 93,477 | 88,948 | 93,296 | 99,736 |
| Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund)2 | 22,647 | 19,902 | 13,324 | 6,302 | 1,620 | (2,676) | 5,633 | 12,549 | 23,969 | 33,475 | 36,615 | 42,066 | 43,938 | 43,476 | 42,125 |
| Net core Crown debt2 | 24,531 | 23,858 | 19,879 | 16,163 | 13,380 | 10,258 | 17,119 | 26,738 | 40,128 | 50,671 | 57,945 | 64,765 | 68,233 | 69,680 | 70,275 |
Net Worth |
|||||||||||||||
| Total Crown net worth | 28,012 | 39,595 | 54,240 | 83,971 | 96,827 | 105,514 | 99,515 | 94,988 | 80,887 | 59,780 | 63,270 | 65,182 | 69,429 | 74,503 | 80,006 |
| Total net worth attributable to the Crown | 27,918 | 39,456 | 54,025 | 83,678 | 96,531 | 105,132 | 99,068 | 94,586 | 80,579 | 59,348 | 61,476 | 61,997 | 64,843 | 68,502 | 73,930 |
| Nominal GDP | 135,716 | 146,344 | 155,358 | 163,232 | 173,214 | 185,678 | 185,487 | 191,798 | 200,234 | 208,467 | 213,844 | 227,892 | 237,954 | 248,004 | 257,219 |
% GDP |
|||||||||||||||
Revenue and Expenses |
|||||||||||||||
| Core Crown revenue | 32.0 | 31.6 | 32.9 | 34.1 | 33.6 | 33.3 | 32.1 | 29.3 | 28.7 | 29.1 | 29.8 | 30.0 | 30.4 | 30.6 | 30.9 |
| Core Crown expenses | 29.4 | 28.6 | 28.9 | 30.2 | 31.2 | 30.7 | 34.5 | 33.4 | 35.2 | 33.1 | 33.5 | 31.8 | 30.9 | 30.3 | 30.0 |
Surpluses |
|||||||||||||||
| Total Crown OBEGAL | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | (2.1) | (3.3) | (9.2) | (4.4) | (2.9) | (0.9) | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| Total Crown operating balance | 1.2 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | (5.7) | (2.4) | (6.7) | (7.1) | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.1 |
Cash Position |
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| Core Crown residual cash | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | (4.7) | (4.7) | (6.7) | (5.1) | (3.6) | (3.0) | (1.5) | (0.6) | (0.2) |
Debt |
|||||||||||||||
| Gross debt1 | 27.0 | 24.6 | 22.8 | 20.8 | 17.7 | 16.9 | 23.4 | 27.9 | 36.2 | 38.2 | 36.8 | 38.5 | 34.9 | 35.3 | 36.5 |
| Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills | 27.0 | 24.6 | 22.8 | 22.0 | 21.2 | 20.3 | 27.5 | 30.7 | 38.6 | 40.4 | 39.5 | 41.0 | 37.4 | 37.6 | 38.8 |
| Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund)2 | 16.7 | 13.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 0.9 | (1.4) | 3.0 | 6.5 | 12.0 | 16.1 | 17.1 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 17.5 | 16.4 |
| Net core Crown debt2 | 18.1 | 16.3 | 12.8 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 13.9 | 20.0 | 24.3 | 27.1 | 28.4 | 28.7 | 28.1 | 27.3 |
Net Worth |
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| Total Crown net worth | 20.6 | 27.1 | 34.9 | 51.4 | 55.9 | 56.8 | 53.7 | 49.5 | 40.4 | 28.7 | 29.6 | 28.6 | 29.2 | 30.0 | 31.1 |
| Total net worth attributable to the Crown | 20.6 | 27.0 | 34.8 | 51.3 | 55.7 | 56.6 | 53.4 | 49.3 | 40.2 | 28.5 | 28.7 | 27.2 | 27.3 | 27.6 | 28.7 |
- Excludes Reserve Bank settlement cash and bank bills
- Excludes advances
|
March Years Annual average % change |
2003 Actual |
2004 Actual |
2005 Actual |
2006 Actual |
2007 Actual |
2008 Actual |
2009 Actual |
2010 Actual |
2011 Actual |
2012 Actual |
2013 Forecast |
2014 Forecast |
2015 Forecast |
2016 Forecast |
2017 Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private consumption | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 3.5 | -1.6 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Public consumption | 0.7 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| TOTAL CONSUMPTION | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 3.8 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Residential investment | 23.6 | 14.7 | 2.3 | -5.0 | -2.1 | 1.8 | -21.3 | -9.1 | 1.8 | -10.6 | 16.8 | 29.2 | 21.0 | 11.8 | 2.4 |
| Non-market investment | 10.7 | 15.5 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 1.8 | -8.0 | 22.6 | 0.0 | -2.9 | -14.8 | -14.2 | -0.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Market investment | 2.8 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 11.0 | -2.9 | 10.6 | -5.2 | -15.2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 14.8 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| TOTAL INVESTMENT | 7.9 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 6.5 | -2.8 | 7.1 | -8.1 | -11.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 8.0 | 19.7 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 0.9 |
| Stock change (contribution to growth) | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -1.1 | 1.2 | -0.5 | -1.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | -0.7 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| GROSS NATIONAL EXPENDITURE | 4.6 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 5.6 | -2.1 | -3.0 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Exports | 8.0 | 0.9 | 4.8 | -0.1 | 3.3 | 3.5 | -2.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 | -2.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Imports | 6.9 | 12.8 | 12.2 | 4.4 | -1.3 | 10.6 | -4.0 | -8.9 | 11.3 | 6.2 | -0.5 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| EXPENDITURE ON GDP | 5.0 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 3.5 | -1.8 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| GDP (production measure) | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | -1.9 | -0.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| - annual % change | 4.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | -3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Real GDP per capita | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | -2.8 | -1.5 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Nominal GDP (expenditure basis) | 5.2 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| GDP deflator | 0.2 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | -0.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Output gap (% deviation, March year average) | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.9 | -0.3 | -2.0 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.3 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Employment | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | -1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Unemployment (% March quarter s.a.) | 5.0 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 |
| Wages (average ordinary-time hourly, ann % change) | 2.3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| CPI inflation (ann % change) | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Merchandise terms of trade (SNA basis) | -5.6 | 4.4 | 3.4 | -1.9 | -1.2 | 8.4 | 0.0 | -7.6 | 10.2 | 1.2 | -6.6 | 10.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Current account balance - $billion | -4.2 | -6.2 | -9.5 | -14.0 | -13.5 | -14.6 | -14.6 | -3.4 | -7.2 | -9.1 | -10.1 | -10.9 | -12.3 | -14.3 | -16.6 |
| Current account balance - % of GDP | -3.1 | -4.3 | -6.2 | -8.6 | -8.0 | -7.9 | -7.9 | -1.8 | -3.6 | -4.4 | -4.8 | -4.8 | -5.2 | -5.8 | -6.5 |
| TWI (March quarter) | 60.6 | 66.9 | 69.6 | 68.3 | 68.8 | 71.9 | 53.7 | 65.3 | 67.2 | 72.5 | 75.9 | 77.0 | 76.1 | 73.5 | 69.2 |
| 90-day bank bill rate (March quarter) | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.8 |
| 10-year bond rate (March quarter) | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.2 |
Based on data available at 17 April 2013. CPI, TWI and interest rate figures are actuals.
