Statement of Specific Fiscal Risks (continued)

Risks Removed Since the 2012 Half Year Update

The following risks have been removed since the 2012 Half Year Update:

Criteria and Rules for Inclusion in the Fiscal Forecasts or Disclosure as Specific Fiscal Risks

The Public Finance Act 1989 requires that the Statement of Specific Fiscal Risks sets out all government decisions, contingent liabilities or contractual obligations known to the Government and subject to specific requirements that may have a material effect on the economic or fiscal outlook.[13]

The criteria and rules set out below are used to determine if government decisions or other circumstances should be incorporated into the fiscal forecasts, disclosed as specific fiscal risks or, in some circumstances, excluded from disclosure.

Criteria for Including Matters in the Fiscal Forecasts

Matters are incorporated into the fiscal forecasts provided they meet the following criteria:

• The matter can be quantified for particular years with reasonable certainty.
• A decision has been taken, or a decision has not yet been taken but it is reasonably probable[14] the matter will be approved, or it is reasonably probable the situation will occur.

Additionally, any other matters may be incorporated into the forecasts if the Secretary to the Treasury considers, using their best professional judgement, that the matters may have a material effect on the fiscal and economic outlook and are certain enough to include in the fiscal forecasts.

Rules for the Disclosure of Specific Fiscal Risks

Matters are disclosed as specific fiscal risks if:

• the likely impact is more than $100 million over five years, and either
• a decision has not yet been taken but it is reasonably possible[15] (but not probable) that the matter will be approved or the situation will occur, or
• it is reasonably probable that the matter will be approved or the situation will occur, but the matter cannot be quantified or assigned to particular years with reasonable certainty.

Additionally, any other matters may be disclosed as specific fiscal risks if the Secretary to the Treasury considers, using their best professional judgement, that the matters may have a material effect (more than $100 million over five years) on the fiscal and economic outlook but are not certain enough to include in the fiscal forecasts.

Exclusions from Disclosure

Matters are excluded from disclosure as specific fiscal risks if they fail to meet the materiality criterion (ie, are less than $100 million over five years), or if they are unlikely[16] to be approved or occur within the forecasting period.

Additionally, the Minister of Finance may determine that a matter be included in the fiscal forecasts or a specific fiscal risk not be disclosed, if such disclosure would be likely to:

• prejudice the substantial economic interests of New Zealand
• prejudice the security or defence of New Zealand or international relations of the Government
• compromise the Crown in a material way in negotiation, litigation or commercial activity
• result in a material loss of value to the Crown.

If possible, the Minister of Finance should avoid withholding the matter either by making a decision on it before the forecasts are finalised, or by disclosing it without quantifying the risk.