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Budget 2012 Home Page Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2012

Data tables for summary fiscal indicators

Table 12 - Central estimates of output gap, cyclically-adjusted balance and fiscal impulse (% of GDP)
June year Output gap OBEGAL OBEGAL excl
earthquake expenses 		CAB Fiscal impulse
(core Crown) 		Fiscal impulse
(core Crown plus
Crown entity) 		Fiscal impulse
(core Crown plus CE)
excluding EQC payouts
1997 1.5 1.8 1.1 2.0
1998 -0.7 2.3 2.6 0.3
1999 -1.8 0.1 1.0 1.0
2000 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.7
2001 -0.1 1.2 1.2 -1.1
2002 0.3 1.9 1.8 -0.8
2003 1.0 3.2 2.7 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7
2004 1.9 3.8 2.9 0.3 0.1 0.1
2005 1.8 4.6 3.7 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6
2006 1.7 4.4 3.5 0.5 0.7 0.7
2007 1.3 3.4 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
2008 2.8 3.1 1.8 0.8 1.0 1.0
2009 0.0 -2.1 -2.1 3.8 4.0 4.0
2010 -0.3 -3.3 -3.2 2.2 1.9 1.9
2011 -0.4 -9.2 -4.6 -4.5 0.7 1.0 0.4
2012 -0.9 -4.1 -3.4 -3.0 -0.3 0.4 -0.2
2013 -0.4 -3.6 -2.7 -2.5 -0.8 -1.3 -0.6
2014 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -2.0 -1.8 -2.1
2015 -0.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 -1.1 -1.4 -1.1
2016 -0.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -0.7

Source: The Treasury

Table 13 - Sources for alternative output gaps
Institution Source Publication date
The Treasury Budget Economic and Fiscal Update May 2012
RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement March 2012
IMF World Economic Outlook April 2012
OECD Economic Outlook November 2011
Table 14 - Elasticity values used in sensitivity analysis
Elasticities Base case Low High
Individual income tax 0.9 0.5 1.8
Company tax 1.4 0.7 2.8
GST 1.0 0.5 2.0
Excise duties 1.0 0.5 2.0
Other indirect tax 1.0 0.5 2.0
Interest, profits and dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other receipts 1.0 0.5 2.0

Source: The Treasury

Table 15 - Output gap estimates used in sensitivity analysis (% of potential GDP)
June year The Treasury RBNZ IMF OECD
1997 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.2
1998 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7
1999 -1.8 -2.3 -1.4 -1.3
2000 1.1 0.4 -0.3 -0.2
2001 -0.1 -0.7 0.2 -0.1
2002 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.5
2003 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.4
2004 1.9 2.7 2.0 2.1
2005 1.8 2.9 2.5 2.4
2006 1.7 2.7 1.7 1.3
2007 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.4
2008 2.8 2.7 0.6 -0.7
2009 0.0 -1.1 -1.8 -3.3
2010 -0.3 -1.9 -2.9 -4.2
2011 -0.4 -2.1 -2.2 -3.1
2012 -0.9 -1.5 -1.7 -1.9
2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.9 -1.2
2014 -0.5 0.8    
2015 -0.5 0.8    
2016 -0.2      

Sources: The Treasury, RBNZ, IMF, OECD

Table 16 - Cyclically-adjusted balance with alternative output gap and elasticity values (% of GDP)
      CAB using alternative output gap CAB using alternative elasticities
June year OBEGAL Baseline CAB RBNZ IMF OECD Low High
1997 1.8 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.5
1998 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.9
1999 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.6
2000 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 -0.4
2001 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
2002 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7
2003 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.3
2004 3.8 2.9 2.5 2.9 2.8 3.3 2.2
2005 4.6 3.7 3.2 3.4 3.4 4.1 2.9
2006 4.4 3.5 3.0 3.5 3.7 3.9 2.8
2007 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.1 2.3
2008 3.1 1.8 1.8 2.8 3.4 2.4 0.6
2009 -2.1 -2.1 -1.6 -1.3 -0.6 -2.1 -2.1
2010 -3.3 -3.2 -2.5 -2.1 -1.6 -3.3 -3.1
2011 -9.2 -4.5 -3.7 -3.7 -3.3 -4.5 -4.3
2012 -4.1 -3.0 -2.8 -2.7 -2.6 -3.2 -2.7
2013 -3.6 -2.5 -2.6 -2.3 -2.2 -2.6 -2.4
2014 -0.9 -0.5 -1.1     -0.6 -0.4
2015 0.1 0.4 -0.2     0.3 0.6
2016 0.8 0.9       0.9 1.0

Source: The Treasury

Table 17 - Core Crown fiscal impulse with alternative output gap and elasticity values (% of GDP)
June year Fiscal impulse Fiscal impulse using
alternative output gaps 		Fiscal impulse using
alternative elasticities
    RBNZ IMF OECD Low High
1997 2.0 2.2 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.9
1998 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 -0.5
1999 1.0 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.7
2000 0.7 0.6 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 1.6
2001 -1.1 -1.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.9 -1.4
2002 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7
2003 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1
2004 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6
2005 -1.6 -1.5 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -1.6
2006 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4
2007 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.2
2008 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.5 1.2
2009 3.8 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.3 3.0
2010 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.1
2011 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.6
2012 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -0.4
2013 -0.8 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7
2014 -2.0 -1.6     -2.0 -2.1
2015 -1.1 -1.1     -1.1 -1.1
2016 -0.7       -0.7 -0.6

Source: The Treasury

Table 18 - Terms-of-trade adjustment to the cyclically-adjusted balance (% of GDP)
June year Baseline CAB Terms-of-trade adjustment (impact on CAB) CAB with terms-of-trade adjustment
50-year average 30-year average 20-year average Statistical filter 50-year average 30-year average 20-year average Statistical filter
1997 1.1 0.2 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.0
1998 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.0 2.9 2.6 3.1 2.6
1999 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.1 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.0
2000 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.3
2001 1.2 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.0 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.2
2002 1.8 0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.1 2.0 1.6 2.1 1.9
2003 2.7 0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.3 2.9 2.5 3.0 3.0
2004 2.9 -0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -0.2 2.3 2.0 2.5 2.7
2005 3.7 -0.9 -1.2 -0.7 -0.3 2.8 2.5 3.0 3.4
2006 3.5 -0.6 -1.0 -0.4 0.2 2.9 2.6 3.1 3.7
2007 2.8 -0.7 -1.1 -0.6 0.2 2.1 1.7 2.2 3.1
2008 1.8 -1.9 -2.3 -1.7 -0.6 -0.1 -0.5 0.1 1.2
2009 -2.1 -1.1 -1.5 -0.9 0.2 -3.3 -3.6 -3.0 -1.9
2010 -3.2 -1.0 -1.3 -0.8 0.3 -4.2 -4.5 -4.0 -2.9
2011 -4.5 -1.8 -2.2 -1.6 -0.3 -6.3 -6.6 -6.1 -4.7
2012 -3.0 -1.7 -2.1 -1.5 -0.2 -4.8 -5.1 -4.6 -3.2
2013 -2.5 -1.3 -1.6 -1.1 0.2 -3.8 -4.1 -3.6 -2.3
2014 -0.5 -1.6 -1.9 -1.4 0.0 -2.2 -2.5 -2.0 -0.6
2015 0.4 -1.7 -2.0 -1.5 0.0 -1.3 -1.6 -1.1 0.3
2016 0.9 -1.6 -1.9 -1.4 0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -0.5 1.0

Source: The Treasury

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