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Table 9 - Treasury and IRD forecasts of tax revenue (accrual)

Table 9 - Treasury and IRD forecasts of tax revenue (accrual)
2010/11
Actual 		2011/12
Forecast 		2012/13
Forecast 		2013/14
Forecast 		2014/15
Forecast 		2015/16
Forecast
$ million   Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference

Direct tax

                               

Individuals

                               
Source deductions 21,243 21,562 21,599 (37) 22,977 22,922 55 24,480 24,468 12 26,053 26,049 4 27,669 27,646 23
Other persons tax 3,791 4,242 4,172 70 4,386 4,300 86 4,609 4,616 (7) 4,802 4,955 (153) 4,992 5,188 (196)
Refunds (1,679) (1,657) (1,660) 3 (1,567) (1,570) 3 (1,466) (1,520) 54 (1,394) (1,470) 76 (1,326) (1,410) 84
Fringe benefit tax 462 444 459 (15) 458 459 (1) 482 471 11 507 483 24 532 492 40
Subtotal: Individuals 23,817 24,591 24,570 21 26,254 26,111 143 28,105 28,035 70 29,968 30,017 (49) 31,867 31,916 (49)
Company tax (net) 7,727 8,274 8,448 (174) 8,968 9,078 (110) 9,741 9,800 (59) 10,390 10,301 89 10,958 10,739 219

Withholding taxes on:

                               
Resident interest income 1,704 1,671 1,754 (83) 1,673 1,670 3 1,893 1,752 141 2,208 2,133 75 2,503 2,619 (116)
Non-resident income 467 451 418 33 455 461 (6) 513 526 (13) 572 605 (33) 613 665 (52)
Foreign-source dividends ..  5 5 ..  ..  1 (1) ..  1 (1) ..  1 (1) ..  1 (1)
Resident dividend income 195 288 270 18 375 350 25 575 540 35 605 555 50 630 565 65
Subtotal: Withholding tax 2,366 2,415 2,447 (32) 2,503 2,482 21 2,981 2,819 162 3,385 3,294 91 3,746 3,850 (104)
Total income tax 33,910 35,280 35,465 (185) 37,725 37,671 54 40,827 40,654 173 43,743 43,612 131 46,571 46,505 66
Other: Estate and gift duties 2 ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  .. 
Total direct tax 33,912 35,280 35,465 (185) 37,725 37,671 54 40,827 40,654 173 43,743 43,612 131 46,571 46,505 66

Indirect tax

                                
GST (net) 19,461 20,771 20,902 (131) 22,116 21,932 184 23,517 23,309 208 24,705 24,549 156 25,832 25,796 36

Excise duties on:

                               
Alcoholic drinks 623 665 673 (8) 698 710 (12) 734 748 (14) 769 776 (7) 803 814 (11)
Tobacco products 220 254 248 6 223 218 5 211 216 (5) 218 219 (1) 227 224 3
Petroleum fuels 872 885 891 (6) 939 958 (19) 969 970 (1) 1,012 1,010 2 1,041 1,040 1
Subtotal: excise duties 1,715 1,804 1,812 (8) 1,860 1,886 (26) 1,914 1,934 (20) 1,999 2,005 (6) 2,071 2,078 (7)

Other indirect tax

                               
Customs duty 1,916 1,989 1,996 (7) 2,037 2,047 (10) 2,108 2,114 (6) 2,175 2,180 (5) 2,241 2,253 (12)
Road user charges 1,016 1,038 1,055 (17) 1,152 1,155 (3) 1,240 1,245 (5) 1,320 1,320 0 1,399 1,390 9
Gaming duties 266 276 277 (1) 281 278 3 286 280 6 291 282 9 296 286 10
Motor vehicle fees 172 174 175 (1) 170 180 (10) 171 185 (14) 173 190 (17) 176 195 (19)
Exhaustible resource levy 36 33 34 (1) 36 34 2 36 35 1 36 38 (2) 36 41 (5)
Approved issuer levy, cheque duty & other 91 95 96 (1) 99 96 3 99 94 5 99 92 7 99 90 9
Subtotal: Other indirect tax 3,497 3,605 3,633 (28) 3,776 3,790 (14) 3,940 3,953 (13) 4,094 4,102 (8) 4,247 4,255 (8)
Total indirect tax 24,673 26,179 26,347 (168) 27,752 27,608 144 29,371 29,196 175 30,798 30,656 142 32,150 32,129 21
Total tax 58,585 61,459 61,812 (353) 65,477 65,279 198 70,198 69,850 348 74,541 74,268 273 78,721 78,634 87
Total tax (% of GDP) 29.2% 29.5% 29.7% -0.2% 30.1% 30.0% 0.1% 30.3% 30.1% 0.2% 30.5% 30.4% 0.1% 30.8% 30.8% 0.0%

less Core Crown tax eliminations

                               
Core Crown income tax 872 175 175   419 419   450 450   483 483   521 521  
GST on Crown expenses and departmental outputs 5,753 6,130 6,130   6,373 6,373   6,237 6,237   6,422 6,422   6,570 6,570  
Crown ESCT 373 383 383   404 404   413 413   421 421   428 428  
Crown AIL 29 30 30   30 30   30 30   30 30   30 30  
Core Crown taxation 51,558 54,741 55,094 (353) 58,251 58,053 198 63,069 62,721 348 67,185 66,912 273 71,171 71,084 87
Core Crown tax (% of GDP) 25.7% 26.3% 26.5% -0.2% 26.7% 26.6% 0.1% 27.2% 27.1% 0.2% 27.5% 27.4% 0.1% 27.8% 27.8% 0.0%

less Total Crown tax eliminations

                               
Income tax from SOEs and CEs 365 353 353   528 528   636 636   780 780   810 810  
Other Crown GST ..  ..  ..    ..  ..    ..  ..    ..  ..    ..  ..   
ESCT from SOEs and CEs 13 10 10   10 10   10 10   10 10   10 10  
Lottery duty 52 47 47   50 50   53 53   54 54   54 54  
Total Crown taxation 51,128 54,331 54,684 (353) 57,663 57,465 198 62,370 62,022 348 66,341 66,067 273 70,297 70,210 87
Total Crown tax (% of GDP) 25.5% 26.1% 26.3% -0.2% 26.5% 26.4% 0.1% 26.9% 26.8% 0.2% 27.2% 27.1% 0.1% 27.5% 27.5% 0.0%
Nominal GDP 200,329 207,987 207,987   217,870 217,870   231,787 231,787   244,028 244,028   255,567 255,567  
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