Table 10 - Treasury and IRD forecasts of tax receipts (cash)
|
2010/11 Actual |
2011/12 Forecast |
2012/13 Forecast |
2013/14 Forecast |
2014/15 Forecast |
2015/16 Forecast |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $ million | Treasury | IRD | Difference | Treasury | IRD | Difference | Treasury | IRD | Difference | Treasury | IRD | Difference | Treasury | IRD | Difference | |
Direct tax |
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Individuals |
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| Source deductions | 21,081 | 21,395 | 21,397 | (2) | 22,855 | 22,815 | 40 | 24,353 | 24,356 | (3) | 25,921 | 25,932 | (11) | 27,532 | 27,524 | 8 |
| Other persons tax | 4,386 | 4,890 | 4,800 | 90 | 5,062 | 4,820 | 242 | 5,232 | 5,180 | 52 | 5,365 | 5,460 | (95) | 5,492 | 5,650 | (158) |
| Refunds | (2,463) | (2,558) | (2,440) | (118) | (2,493) | (2,370) | (123) | (2,325) | (2,370) | 45 | (2,210) | (2,270) | 60 | (2,102) | (2,190) | 88 |
| Fringe benefit tax | 457 | 440 | 446 | (6) | 457 | 455 | 2 | 481 | 467 | 14 | 506 | 479 | 27 | 531 | 491 | 40 |
| Subtotal: Individuals | 23,461 | 24,167 | 24,203 | (36) | 25,881 | 25,720 | 161 | 27,741 | 27,633 | 108 | 29,582 | 29,601 | (19) | 31,453 | 31,475 | (22) |
| Company tax (net) | 7,717 | 8,272 | 8,370 | (98) | 8,775 | 8,788 | (13) | 9,660 | 9,548 | 112 | 10,236 | 10,084 | 152 | 10,671 | 10,459 | 212 |
Withholding taxes on: |
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| Resident interest income | 1,701 | 1,670 | 1,703 | (33) | 1,672 | 1,669 | 3 | 1,892 | 1,751 | 141 | 2,207 | 2,132 | 75 | 2,502 | 2,618 | (116) |
| Non-resident income | 462 | 432 | 415 | 17 | 454 | 460 | (6) | 512 | 525 | (13) | 571 | 604 | (33) | 612 | 664 | (52) |
| Foreign-source dividends | (1) | 5 | 5 | .. | .. | 1 | (1) | .. | 1 | (1) | .. | 1 | (1) | .. | 1 | (1) |
| Resident dividend income | 196 | 288 | 270 | 18 | 375 | 350 | 25 | 575 | 540 | 35 | 605 | 555 | 50 | 630 | 565 | 65 |
| Subtotal: Withholding tax | 2,358 | 2,395 | 2,393 | 2 | 2,501 | 2,480 | 21 | 2,979 | 2,817 | 162 | 3,383 | 3,292 | 91 | 3,744 | 3,848 | (104) |
| Total income tax | 33,536 | 34,834 | 34,966 | (132) | 37,157 | 36,988 | 169 | 40,380 | 39,998 | 382 | 43,201 | 42,977 | 224 | 45,868 | 45,782 | 86 |
| Other: Estate and gift duties | 2 | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. |
| Total direct tax | 33,538 | 34,834 | 34,966 | (132) | 37,157 | 36,988 | 169 | 40,380 | 39,998 | 382 | 43,201 | 42,977 | 224 | 45,868 | 45,782 | 86 |
Indirect tax |
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| GST (net) | 18,796 | 20,266 | 20,470 | (204) | 21,803 | 21,681 | 122 | 23,189 | 23,041 | 148 | 24,363 | 24,264 | 99 | 25,477 | 25,497 | (20) |
Excise duties on: |
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| Alcoholic drinks | 625 | 665 | 673 | (8) | 698 | 710 | (12) | 734 | 748 | (14) | 769 | 776 | (7) | 803 | 814 | (11) |
| Tobacco products | 181 | 254 | 248 | 6 | 223 | 218 | 5 | 211 | 216 | (5) | 218 | 219 | (1) | 227 | 224 | 3 |
| Petroleum fuels | 869 | 885 | 891 | (6) | 939 | 958 | (19) | 969 | 970 | (1) | 1,012 | 1,010 | 2 | 1,041 | 1,040 | 1 |
| Subtotal: Excise duties | 1,675 | 1,804 | 1,812 | (8) | 1,860 | 1,886 | (26) | 1,914 | 1,934 | (20) | 1,999 | 2,005 | (6) | 2,071 | 2,078 | (7) |
Other indirect tax |
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| Customs duty | 2,005 | 1,989 | 1,996 | (7) | 2,037 | 2,047 | (10) | 2,108 | 2,114 | (6) | 2,175 | 2,180 | (5) | 2,241 | 2,253 | (12) |
| Road user charges | 1,015 | 1,038 | 1,055 | (17) | 1,152 | 1,155 | (3) | 1,240 | 1,245 | (5) | 1,320 | 1,320 | 0 | 1,399 | 1,390 | 9 |
| Gaming duties | 268 | 276 | 277 | (1) | 281 | 278 | 3 | 286 | 280 | 6 | 291 | 282 | 9 | 296 | 286 | 10 |
| Motor vehicle fees | 171 | 174 | 175 | (1) | 170 | 180 | (10) | 171 | 185 | (14) | 173 | 190 | (17) | 176 | 195 | (19) |
| Exhaustible resource levy | 36 | 33 | 34 | (1) | 36 | 34 | 2 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 36 | 38 | (2) | 36 | 41 | (5) |
| Approved issuer levy, cheque duty & other | 89 | 95 | 97 | (2) | 99 | 96 | 3 | 99 | 94 | 5 | 99 | 92 | 7 | 99 | 90 | 9 |
| Subtotal: Other indirect tax | 3,584 | 3,605 | 3,634 | (29) | 3,776 | 3,790 | (14) | 3,940 | 3,953 | (13) | 4,094 | 4,102 | (8) | 4,247 | 4,255 | (8) |
| Total indirect tax | 24,055 | 25,674 | 25,916 | (242) | 27,439 | 27,357 | 82 | 29,043 | 28,928 | 115 | 30,456 | 30,371 | 85 | 31,795 | 31,830 | (35) |
| Total tax | 57,593 | 60,508 | 60,882 | (374) | 64,596 | 64,345 | 251 | 69,423 | 68,926 | 497 | 73,657 | 73,348 | 309 | 77,663 | 77,612 | 51 |
| Total tax (% of GDP) | 28.7% | 29.1% | 29.3% | -0.2% | 29.6% | 29.5% | 0.1% | 30.0% | 29.7% | 0.2% | 30.2% | 30.1% | 0.1% | 30.4% | 30.4% | 0.0% |
less Core Crown tax eliminations |
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| Core Crown income tax | 517 | 316 | 316 | 369 | 369 | 444 | 444 | 476 | 476 | 514 | 514 | |||||
| GST on Crown expenses and departmental outputs | 5,741 | 6,146 | 6,146 | 6,404 | 6,404 | 6,232 | 6,232 | 6,418 | 6,418 | 6,567 | 6,567 | |||||
| Crown ESCT | 370 | 379 | 379 | 400 | 400 | 410 | 410 | 418 | 418 | 425 | 425 | |||||
| Crown AIL | 29 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | |||||
| Core Crown taxation | 50,936 | 53,638 | 54,012 | (374) | 57,392 | 57,141 | 251 | 62,308 | 61,811 | 497 | 66,315 | 66,006 | 309 | 70,128 | 70,077 | 51 |
| Core Crown tax (% of GDP) | 25.4% | 25.8% | 26.0% | -0.2% | 26.3% | 26.2% | 0.1% | 26.9% | 26.7% | 0.2% | 27.2% | 27.0% | 0.1% | 27.4% | 27.4% | 0.0% |
less Total Crown tax eliminations |
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| Income tax from SOEs and CEs | 384 | 401 | 401 | 425 | 425 | 594 | 594 | 684 | 684 | 732 | 732 | |||||
| Other Crown GST | 70 | 8 | 8 | 56 | 56 | (15) | (15) | (33) | (33) | (49) | (49) | |||||
| ESCT from SOEs and CEs | 12 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||||
| Lottery duty | 52 | 47 | 47 | 50 | 50 | 53 | 53 | 54 | 54 | 54 | 54 | |||||
| Total Crown taxation | 50,418 | 53,178 | 53,552 | (374) | 56,856 | 56,605 | 251 | 61,671 | 61,174 | 497 | 65,605 | 65,296 | 309 | 69,385 | 69,334 | 51 |
| Total Crown tax (% of GDP) | 25.2% | 25.6% | 25.7% | -0.2% | 26.1% | 26.0% | 0.1% | 26.6% | 26.4% | 0.2% | 26.9% | 26.8% | 0.1% | 27.1% | 27.1% | 0.0% |

