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Budget 2012 Home Page Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2012

Table 10 - Treasury and IRD forecasts of tax receipts (cash)

Table 10 - Treasury and IRD forecasts of tax receipts (cash)
2010/11
Actual
2011/12
Forecast
2012/13
Forecast
2013/14
Forecast
2014/15
Forecast
2015/16
Forecast
$ million   Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference

Direct tax

                               

Individuals

                               
Source deductions 21,081 21,395 21,397 (2) 22,855 22,815 40 24,353 24,356 (3) 25,921 25,932 (11) 27,532 27,524 8
Other persons tax 4,386 4,890 4,800 90 5,062 4,820 242 5,232 5,180 52 5,365 5,460 (95) 5,492 5,650 (158)
Refunds (2,463) (2,558) (2,440) (118) (2,493) (2,370) (123) (2,325) (2,370) 45 (2,210) (2,270) 60 (2,102) (2,190) 88
Fringe benefit tax 457 440 446 (6) 457 455 2 481 467 14 506 479 27 531 491 40
Subtotal: Individuals 23,461 24,167 24,203 (36) 25,881 25,720 161 27,741 27,633 108 29,582 29,601 (19) 31,453 31,475 (22)
Company tax (net) 7,717 8,272 8,370 (98) 8,775 8,788 (13) 9,660 9,548 112 10,236 10,084 152 10,671 10,459 212

Withholding taxes on:

                               
Resident interest income 1,701 1,670 1,703 (33) 1,672 1,669 3 1,892 1,751 141 2,207 2,132 75 2,502 2,618 (116)
Non-resident income 462 432 415 17 454 460 (6) 512 525 (13) 571 604 (33) 612 664 (52)
Foreign-source dividends (1) 5 5 ..  ..  1 (1) ..  1 (1) ..  1 (1) ..  1 (1)
Resident dividend income 196 288 270 18 375 350 25 575 540 35 605 555 50 630 565 65
Subtotal: Withholding tax 2,358 2,395 2,393 2 2,501 2,480 21 2,979 2,817 162 3,383 3,292 91 3,744 3,848 (104)
Total income tax 33,536 34,834 34,966 (132) 37,157 36,988 169 40,380 39,998 382 43,201 42,977 224 45,868 45,782 86
Other: Estate and gift duties 2 ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  .. 
Total direct tax 33,538 34,834 34,966 (132) 37,157 36,988 169 40,380 39,998 382 43,201 42,977 224 45,868 45,782 86

Indirect tax

                               
GST (net) 18,796 20,266 20,470 (204) 21,803 21,681 122 23,189 23,041 148 24,363 24,264 99 25,477 25,497 (20)

Excise duties on:

                               
Alcoholic drinks 625 665 673 (8) 698 710 (12) 734 748 (14) 769 776 (7) 803 814 (11)
Tobacco products 181 254 248 6 223 218 5 211 216 (5) 218 219 (1) 227 224 3
Petroleum fuels 869 885 891 (6) 939 958 (19) 969 970 (1) 1,012 1,010 2 1,041 1,040 1
Subtotal: Excise duties 1,675 1,804 1,812 (8) 1,860 1,886 (26) 1,914 1,934 (20) 1,999 2,005 (6) 2,071 2,078 (7)

Other indirect tax

                               
Customs duty 2,005 1,989 1,996 (7) 2,037 2,047 (10) 2,108 2,114 (6) 2,175 2,180 (5) 2,241 2,253 (12)
Road user charges 1,015 1,038 1,055 (17) 1,152 1,155 (3) 1,240 1,245 (5) 1,320 1,320 0 1,399 1,390 9
Gaming duties 268 276 277 (1) 281 278 3 286 280 6 291 282 9 296 286 10
Motor vehicle fees 171 174 175 (1) 170 180 (10) 171 185 (14) 173 190 (17) 176 195 (19)
Exhaustible resource levy 36 33 34 (1) 36 34 2 36 35 1 36 38 (2) 36 41 (5)
Approved issuer levy, cheque duty & other 89 95 97 (2) 99 96 3 99 94 5 99 92 7 99 90 9
Subtotal: Other indirect tax 3,584 3,605 3,634 (29) 3,776 3,790 (14) 3,940 3,953 (13) 4,094 4,102 (8) 4,247 4,255 (8)
Total indirect tax 24,055 25,674 25,916 (242) 27,439 27,357 82 29,043 28,928 115 30,456 30,371 85 31,795 31,830 (35)
Total tax 57,593 60,508 60,882 (374) 64,596 64,345 251 69,423 68,926 497 73,657 73,348 309 77,663 77,612 51
Total tax (% of GDP) 28.7% 29.1% 29.3% -0.2% 29.6% 29.5% 0.1% 30.0% 29.7% 0.2% 30.2% 30.1% 0.1% 30.4% 30.4% 0.0%

less Core Crown tax eliminations

                               
Core Crown income tax 517 316 316   369 369   444 444   476 476   514 514  
GST on Crown expenses and departmental outputs 5,741 6,146 6,146   6,404 6,404   6,232 6,232   6,418 6,418   6,567 6,567  
Crown ESCT 370 379 379   400 400   410 410   418 418   425 425  
Crown AIL 29 30 30   30 30   30 30   30 30   30 30  
Core Crown taxation 50,936 53,638 54,012 (374) 57,392 57,141 251 62,308 61,811 497 66,315 66,006 309 70,128 70,077 51
Core Crown tax (% of GDP) 25.4% 25.8% 26.0% -0.2% 26.3% 26.2% 0.1% 26.9% 26.7% 0.2% 27.2% 27.0% 0.1% 27.4% 27.4% 0.0%

less Total Crown tax eliminations

                               
Income tax from SOEs and CEs 384 401 401   425 425   594 594   684 684   732 732  
Other Crown GST 70 8 8   56 56   (15) (15)   (33) (33)   (49) (49)  
ESCT from SOEs and CEs 12 5 5   5 5   5 5   5 5   5 5  
Lottery duty 52 47 47   50 50   53 53   54 54   54 54  
Total Crown taxation 50,418 53,178 53,552 (374) 56,856 56,605 251 61,671 61,174 497 65,605 65,296 309 69,385 69,334 51
Total Crown tax (% of GDP) 25.2% 25.6% 25.7% -0.2% 26.1% 26.0% 0.1% 26.6% 26.4% 0.2% 26.9% 26.8% 0.1% 27.1% 27.1% 0.0%
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