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Budget 2012 Home Page Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2012

Time Series of Fiscal and Economic Indicators

Fiscal Indicators
June Years 2000
Actual 		2001
 Actual 		2002
 Actual 		2003
 Actual 		2004
 Actual 		2005
 Actual 		2006
 Actual 		2007
 Actual 		2008
 Actual 		2009
Actual		 2010
Actual		 2011
Actual		 2012
Forecast 		2013
Forecast		 2014
Forecast		 2015
Forecast		 2016
Forecast

$ millions

  

Revenue and Expenses

 
Core Crown revenue 34,946 37,842 39,945 43,440 46,219 51,045 55,735 58,211 61,819 59,482 56,216 57,550 60,031 64,191 69,179 73,603 77,909
Core Crown expenses 34,829 36,559 37,513 39,897 41,882 44,895 49,320 54,003 56,997 64,002 64,013 70,450 69,633 73,732 72,902 74,912 77,256

Surpluses

 
Total Crown OBEGAL 594 1,422 2,471 4,366 5,573 7,075 7,091 5,860 5,637 (3,893) (6,315) (18,396) (8,441) (7,897) (2,013) 197 2,102
Total Crown operating balance 1,405 1,208 2,286 1,621 7,309 5,931 9,542 8,023 2,384 (10,505) (4,509) (13,360) (10,642) (5,699) 366 2,735 4,814

Cash Position

 
Core Crown residual cash (386) 349 216 1,217 520 3,104 2,985 2,877 2,057 (8,639) (9,000) (13,343) (12,119) (9,671) (5,184) (3,680) (1,198)

Debt

 
Gross debt1 36,580 37,194 36,650 36,617 36,017 35,478 33,903 30,647 31,390 43,356 53,591 72,420 80,142 79,972 88,053 84,230 84,849
Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills 36,580 37,194 36,650 36,617 36,017 35,478 35,867 36,805 37,745 50,973 58,891 77,290 84,886 84,790 92,891 89,088 89,727
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund)2 25,895 24,908 24,773 22,647 19,902 13,324 6,302 1,620 (2,676) 5,633 12,549 23,969 34,059 42,115 45,703 47,355 46,435
Net core Crown debt2 25,895 24,908 25,388 24,531 23,858 19,879 16,163 13,380 10,258 17,119 26,738 40,128 51,921 61,265 66,470 69,791 70,668

Net Worth

 
Total Crown net worth 12,605 15,450 22,825 28,012 39,595 54,240 83,971 96,827 105,514 99,515 94,988 80,887 70,303 66,208 68,207 72,587 79,128
Total net worth attributable to the Crown 12,605 15,450 22,766 27,918 39,456 54,025 83,678 96,531 105,132 99,068 94,586 80,579 69,995 64,560 65,169 68,119 73,180
Nominal GDP 112,588 119,991 127,511 134,660 145,199 154,377 161,885 172,023 183,331 185,242 189,016 200,329 207,987 217,870 231,787 244,028 255,567

% GDP

  

Revenue and Expenses

 
Core Crown revenue 31.0 31.5 31.3 32.3 31.8 33.1 34.4 33.8 33.7 32.1 29.7 28.7 28.9 29.5 29.8 30.2 30.5
Core Crown expenses 30.9 30.5 29.4 29.6 28.8 29.1 30.5 31.4 31.1 34.6 33.9 35.2 33.5 33.8 31.5 30.7 30.2

Surpluses

 
Total Crown OBEGAL 0.5 1.2 1.9 3.2 3.8 4.6 4.4 3.4 3.1 (2.1) (3.3) (9.2) (4.1) (3.6) (0.9) 0.1 0.8
Total Crown operating balance 1.2 1.0 1.8 1.2 5.0 3.8 5.9 4.7 1.3 (5.7) (2.4) (6.7) (5.1) (2.6) 0.2 1.1 1.9

Cash Position

 
Core Crown residual cash (0.3) 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.1 (4.7) (4.8) (6.7) (5.8) (4.4) (2.2) (1.5) (0.5)

Debt

 
Gross debt1 32.5 31.0 28.7 27.2 24.8 23.0 20.9 17.8 17.1 23.4 28.4 36.2 38.5 36.7 38.0 34.5 33.2
Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills 32.5 31.0 28.7 27.2 24.8 23.0 22.2 21.4 20.6 27.5 31.2 38.6 40.8 38.9 40.1 36.5 35.1
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund)2 23.0 20.8 19.4 16.8 13.7 8.6 3.9 0.9 (1.5) 3.0 6.6 12.0 16.4 19.3 19.7 19.4 18.2
Net core Crown debt2 23.0 20.8 19.9 18.2 16.4 12.9 10.0 7.8 5.6 9.2 14.1 20.0 25.0 28.1 28.7 28.6 27.7

Net Worth

 
Total Crown net worth 11.2 12.9 17.9 20.8 27.3 35.1 51.9 56.3 57.6 53.7 50.3 40.4 33.8 30.4 29.4 29.7 31.0
Total net worth attributable to the Crown 11.2 12.9 17.9 20.7 27.2 35.0 51.7 56.1 57.3 53.5 50.0 40.2 33.7 29.6 28.1 27.9 28.6

1 Excludes Reserve Bank settlement cash and bank bills

2 Excludes advances

Economic Indicators1
March Years
Annual average % change		 2000
Actual		 2001
 Actual 		2002
 Actual 		2003
 Actual 		2004
 Actual 		2005
 Actual 		2006
 Actual 		2007
 Actual 		2008
 Actual 		2009
 Actual 		2010
 Actual 		2011
 Actual 		2012
Forecast		 2013
Forecast 		2014
Forecast 		2015
Forecast 		2016
Forecast
Private consumption 3.3 1.4 2.7 4.8 6.2 4.5 4.4 2.5 3.3 -1.1 0.4 2.0 2.7 2.2 2.9 2.8 2.6
Public consumption 5.8 -2.1 4.2 1.4 4.9 4.6 4.9 4.1 5.0 4.2 0.2 3.7 1.1 -0.8 0.1 0.7 0.6
TOTAL CONSUMPTION 3.8 0.6 3.0 4.0 5.9 4.6 4.5 2.8 3.7 0.1 0.3 2.4 2.3 1.5 2.2 2.4 2.2
Residential investment                19.5 -13.3 2.0 23.6 15.0 2.6 -5.1 -1.5 4.3 -23.0 -12.8 4.4 -11.2 29.5 40.7 14.7 5.2
Non-market investment                 13.0 -13.8 21.9 10.7 15.7 11.0 5.9 -7.0 -7.9 15.6 -5.6 -16.5 -7.4 5.4 3.3 5.6 3.4
Market investment                     7.4 7.3 6.9 2.8 13.0 11.9 11.3 -1.5 9.2 -3.3 -11.4 9.6 6.0 7.4 14.1 6.3 2.2
TOTAL INVESTMENT 10.9 -0.1 6.8 8.0 13.6 8.8 6.6 -2.3 6.4 -7.7 -10.8 6.8 1.0 12.6 18.4 8.1 3.0
Stock change (contribution to growth) 1.2 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.5 -0.7 0.6 0.2 -2.1 1.4 0.7 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.2
GROSS NATIONAL EXPENDITURE 6.4 0.2 3.8 4.7 7.6 5.8 4.5 1.0 4.8 -1.4 -3.9 4.6 2.4 3.7 5.8 3.9 2.6
Exports 7.4 6.3 3.0 7.8 1.1 4.8 -0.2 2.9 3.4 -3.0 4.8 1.9 3.0 2.1 1.0 2.1 2.1
Imports 11.3 -0.7 4.0 7.2 12.7 12.5 4.2 -1.6 10.4 -4.3 -9.4 10.5 5.2 2.8 8.5 4.9 1.7
EXPENDITURE ON GDP 5.2 2.4 3.5 5.0 4.0 3.6 3.3 2.2 2.8 -1.0 0.6 2.0 1.5 2.9 3.4 3.0 2.8
GDP (production measure) 5.4 2.5 3.6 4.9 4.4 3.8 3.2 0.9 3.0 -1.5 -0.9 1.2 1.6 2.6 3.4 3.1 2.9
 - annual % change 6.5 0.8 4.6 4.6 5.3 2.6 2.4 1.7 2.2 -3.4 1.3 1.2 1.6 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8
Real GDP per capita 4.8 1.9 2.7 3.0 2.4 2.4 2.1 -0.4 1.9 -2.4 -2.1 0.0 0.8 1.8 2.4 2.1 2.0
Nominal GDP (expenditure basis) 6.0 5.7 7.5 5.1 6.9 7.1 5.6 5.0 7.7 1.9 1.0 5.9 4.2 4.1 6.5 5.4 4.9
GDP deflator 0.8 3.2 3.9 0.2 2.8 3.3 2.3 2.8 4.7 2.9 0.4 3.7 2.6 1.1 3.0 2.4 2.0
Output gap (% deviation, March year average) 0.6 0.1 0.2 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.0 2.8 0.8 -0.5 -0.2 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3
Employment 1.9 2.0 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.6 2.8 2.2 1.3 0.9 -1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.4
Unemployment (% March quarter s.a.)          6.5 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.3 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 5.1 6.1 6.6 6.3 5.7 5.2 5.0 4.7
Wages (average ordinary-time hourly, ann % change)         1.7 3.2 3.7 2.3 3.5 3.6 5.4 4.7 4.7 5.4 1.0 2.6 3.2 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.5
CPI inflation (ann % change)      1.5 3.1 2.6 2.5 1.5 2.8 3.3 2.5 3.4 3.0 2.0 4.5 1.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4
Merchandise terms of trade (SNA basis)       0.2 3.4 4.0 -5.6 4.3 3.5 -2.0 -1.1 8.5 -0.1 -7.5 9.9 1.3 -4.0 3.9 2.9 1.5
Current account balance - $billion           -7.1 -4.4 -3.4 -4.1 -6.2 -9.4 -14.0 -13.5 -14.6 -14.8 -3.6 -7.2 -8.7 -9.8 -13.5 -15.2 -16.9
Current account balance - % of GDP           -6.4 -3.7 -2.7 -3.1 -4.4 -6.2 -8.7 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 -1.9 -3.6 -4.2 -4.6 -5.9 -6.3 -6.7
TWI (March quarter)                          54.1 50.5 51.6 60.6 66.9 69.6 68.3 68.8 71.9 53.7 65.3 67.2 72.5 72.0 70.8 67.5 63.0
90-day bank bill rate (March quarter)        6.0 6.4 5.0 5.8 5.5 6.9 7.6 7.8 8.8 3.7 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.4
10-year bond rate (March quarter)            7.3 6.0 6.7 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.9 6.3 4.6 5.9 5.6 4.0 4.2 4.6 5.0 5.2

1 Data for 2012 and subsequently are forecasts, except CPI inflation, TWI, 90-day bank bill rate and 10-year bond rate, which are actual for 2012. Historical GDP data are those that were available on 27 April when the forecasts were completed.

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