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Budget 2012 Home Page Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2012

Statement of Specific Fiscal Risks

Summary Table

The matters listed below are disclosed as specific fiscal risks because they meet the rules for disclosure outlined at the end of the chapter. Full descriptions of the risks listed below are set out in the next section.

Specific fiscal risks as at 8 May 2012 Status Value of risk

Potential policy decisions affecting revenue

ACC - Levies Changed Unquantified
Revenue - Income-Sharing Tax Credits Unchanged $500 million per annum
Revenue - Salary Trade-Offs Unchanged Unquantified
Services funded by Third Party Revenue Changed Unquantified

Potential policy decisions affecting expenses but expected to be funded from Budget allowances

Environment - Review of the Emissions Trading Scheme Changed Between $175 million of operating savings and $145 million of operating expenses
Government Response to Wai 262 Unchanged Unquantified
Housing - Reform of Social Housing Unchanged Unquantified
Revenue - KiwiSaver Auto-Enrolment  Changed $350 to $550 million operating expenses
Revenue - Transformation and Technology Renewal Unchanged Unquantified
Reviews of Public Services Unchanged Unquantified
Social Development - Welfare Reform New Unquantified
State Sector Employment Agreements Unchanged Unquantified

Potential capital decisions but expected to be funded from the Future Investment Fund

Departmental Capital Intentions Changed Unquantified
Earthquake Strengthening for Crown-Owned Buildings New Unquantified
Finance - Crown Overseas Properties Changed $150 million capital expenditure
Finance - Investment in Kiwibank New Unquantified
Primary Industries - Investment in Water Infrastructure Unchanged Unquantified
Transport - Support for KiwiRail Changed Unquantified

Matters dependent on external factors

ACC - Non-Earners' Account Changed Unquantified
ACC - Work-Related Gradual Process Disease and Infection Changed Unquantified
Canterbury Earthquake - AMI Support Package Changed Unquantified
Canterbury Earthquake - EQC Changed Unquantified
Canterbury Earthquake - Exceeding the CERF Changed Unquantified
Communications - Potential Impairment in Value of Broadband Investment Unchanged Unquantified
Defence Force - Potential Rationalisation, Revaluation and Disposal of NZDF Assets New Unquantified
Energy - Crown Revenue from Petroleum Royalties Unchanged Unquantified
Environment - Finance for Developing Countries Unchanged Unquantified
Environment - International Climate Change Obligations Changed Unquantified
Environment - Kyoto Protocol Obligations Changed Unquantified
Finance - Entities in Receivership under Crown Retail Deposit Guarantee Scheme Unchanged Unquantified
Finance - Goodwill on Acquisition New Unquantified
Finance - Government Commitments to International Financial Institutions Unchanged Unquantified
Finance - Sale of Part of the Crown's Shareholding in Five Companies Changed Unquantified
Health - Payment of Family Caregivers Changed Unquantified
Housing - Weathertight Homes New Unquantified
Revenue - Cash Held in Tax Pools Unchanged Unquantified
Transport - KiwiRail Balance Sheet Restructure New Unquantified
Treaty Negotiations - Treaty Settlement Forecast Unchanged Unquantified
Treaty Negotiations - Relativity Clause Unchanged Unquantified
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