Fiscal Sensitivities
The scenarios set out alternative paths for the fiscal position based on plausible assumptions for specific drivers. In addition, Table 3.2 provides some “rules of thumb” on the sensitivities of the fiscal position to changes in specific variables without identifying the drivers of change.
|
Year ended 30 June ($million) |
2011 Forecast |
2012 Forecast |
2013 Forecast |
2014 Forecast |
2015 Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% lower nominal GDP growth per annum on | |||||
| Tax revenue | (515) | (1,110) | (1,785) | (2,555) | (3,380) |
| Revenue impact of a 1% decrease in growth of | |||||
| Wages and salaries | (235) | (475) | (770) | (1,090) | (1,440) |
| Taxable business profits | (100) | (230) | (365) | (525) | (690) |
| One percentage point lower interest rates | |||||
| Interest income1 | (52) | (149) | (136) | (78) | (88) |
| Expenses1 | (37) | (279) | (427) | (521) | (604) |
| Impact of interest rates on the operating balance | (14) | 130 | 291 | 444 | 517 |
Note: 1 NZDMO holdings only
Source: The Treasury
