Quantified Risks
If they were to eventuate the risks outlined in these tables would, to the extent that they cannot be funded from future budget allowances, by reprioritising existing expenditure or through third-party revenue, impact the Government's forecast financial position (as indicated in the table below).
A negative fiscal impact means an increase in net debt and possibly a decrease in the operating balance.
| Quantified risks as at 4 May 2010 | Impact on fiscal position |
Value of risk |
|---|---|---|
New risks |
||
| Economic Development - Venture Investment Fund underwrite | Negative | $40m |
| Justice - Auckland Courthouse Capital Programme | Negative | $160m |
| Ministerial Services - Rugby World Cup Visits Programme | Negative | $4m per annum and $12m one-off |
| Transport - Support for New Zealand Railways Corporation (KiwiRail) Business Strategy | Negative | $500m |
Changed risks |
||
| Communications - Broadband Investment | Negative | $1b capital |
| Corrections - Community Probation and Psychological Services | Negative | $24m capital and $30m operating |
| Corrections - Prison Construction | Negative | $412m capital and $63m operating |
| Education, Social Development, Health and Revenue - Medical Training Places | Negative | $12m operating per annum |
| Immigration - Immigration New Zealand Change Programme | Negative | $63m over 4 years |
| Justice - Review of the Legal Aid System | Negative | $274m |
| Police - Digital Radio Network Phase 2 | Negative | $150m |
Unchanged risks |
||
| Defence Force - Future Operationally Deployed Forces Activity | Negative | $30m operating |
| Defence Force - Sale of Skyhawks and Aermacchi Trainers | Positive | $130m |
| Education - Broadband Investment: Schools | Negative | $150m to $235m |
| Finance - Crown Overseas Properties | Negative | Preliminary cost estimates total $150m over the period 2009/10 to 2013/14 |
| Health - Additional WellChild Visits | Negative | $15.4m per annum |
| Immigration - Re-development of Mangere Refugee Centre | Negative | $5m operating and $25m capital |
