Criteria and Rules for Disclosure in the Fiscal Forecasts or as Specific Fiscal Risks

All government decisions and other circumstances that may have a material effect on the fiscal and economic outlook are considered against the criteria and rules set out below to determine if they are to be incorporated into the fiscal forecasts, disclosed as specific fiscal risks or, in some circumstances, excluded from disclosure.

Criteria for including matters in the fiscal forecasts

Matters are incorporated into the fiscal forecasts provided they meet all of the following criteria:

• The quantum is more than $10 million in any one year.
• The matter can be quantified for particular years with reasonable certainty.
• A decision has been taken; or a decision has not yet been taken, but it is reasonably probable[7] the matter will be approved, or it is reasonably probable the situation will occur.

Additionally, any other matters may be incorporated into the forecasts if the Secretary to the Treasury considers, using his or her best professional judgement, that the matters may have a material effect on the fiscal and economic outlook and are certain enough to include in the fiscal forecasts.

Rules for the disclosure of specific fiscal risks 

Matters are disclosed as specific fiscal risks if:

• the likely cost is more than $10 million in any one year, and either
• a decision has not yet been taken, but it is reasonably possible[8] (but not probable) that the matter will be approved or the situation will occur, or
• it is reasonably probable that the matter will be approved or the situation will occur, but the matter cannot be quantified for or assigned to particular years with reasonable certainty.

Additionally, any other matters may be disclosed as specific fiscal risks if the Secretary to the Treasury considers, using his or her best professional judgement, that the matters may have a material effect (more than $10 million in any one year) on the fiscal and economic outlook, but are not certain enough to include in the fiscal forecasts.

Exclusions from disclosure

Matters are excluded from disclosure as specific fiscal risks if they fail to meet the materiality criteria (ie, are less than $10 million in every year), or if it is unlikely[9] they will be approved or occur within the forecasting period.

Additionally, the Minister of Finance may determine that an item included in the fiscal forecasts or a specific fiscal risk not be disclosed, if such disclosure would be likely to:

• prejudice the substantial economic interests of New Zealand
• prejudice the security or defence of New Zealand or international relations of the Government
• compromise the Crown in a material way in negotiation, litigation or commercial activity, or
• result in a material loss of value to the Crown.

Furthermore, the Minister of Finance has to determine that there is no reasonable or prudent way the Government can avoid this prejudice, compromise or material loss by making a decision on the fiscal risk before the finalisation of the forecasts, or by disclosing the forecast item or fiscal risk without reference to its fiscal implications.