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Budget 2009 Home Page Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2009

Fiscal Sensitivities

Table 1.16 provides some “rules of thumb” on the sensitivities of the fiscal position to changes in specific variables.

Table 1.16 - Fiscal sensitivity analysis
Year ending 30 June
($ million)
2009
Forecast
2010
Forecast
2011
Forecast
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast
1% lower nominal GDP growth per annum on
Tax revenue (580) (1,105) (1,630) (2,250) (2,975)
Revenue impact of a 1% decrease in growth of
Wages and salaries (260) (500) (750) (1,030) (1,345)
Taxable business profits (135) (265) (405) (565) (760)
One percentage point lower interest rates
Interest income (45) (150) (130) (65) 30
Expenses (45) (255) (345) (435) (530)
Impact on the operating balance 0 105 215 370 560

Source: The Treasury

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