Fiscal Sensitivities
Table 1.16 provides some “rules of thumb” on the sensitivities of the fiscal position to changes in specific variables.
|
Year ending 30 June ($ million) |
2009
Forecast |
2010 Forecast |
2011 Forecast |
2012 Forecast |
2013
Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% lower nominal GDP growth per annum on | |||||
| Tax revenue | (580) | (1,105) | (1,630) | (2,250) | (2,975) |
| Revenue impact of a 1% decrease in growth of | |||||
| Wages and salaries | (260) | (500) | (750) | (1,030) | (1,345) |
| Taxable business profits | (135) | (265) | (405) | (565) | (760) |
| One percentage point lower interest rates | |||||
| Interest income | (45) | (150) | (130) | (65) | 30 |
| Expenses | (45) | (255) | (345) | (435) | (530) |
| Impact on the operating balance | 0 | 105 | 215 | 370 | 560 |
Source: The Treasury
