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Budget 2008 Home Page Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2008

Time Series of Fiscal and Economic Indicators

Fiscal Indicators
  1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Years ended 30 June - $million Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Revenue and Expenses                                
Core Crown revenue excl NZS Fund 33,131 34,242 32,880 34,946 37,842 39,945 43,440 46,219 51,045 56,951 58,482 61,814 61,787 63,552 66,284 69,004
Core Crown expenses 31,368 32,982 33,939 34,829 36,559 37,513 39,897 41,882 44,895 49,320 54,003 57,364 61,883 63,890 67,016 69,943
Surpluses                                
Total Crown OBEGAL 1,801 2,345 128 594 1,422 2,471 4,366 5,573 7,075 7,091 5,860 5,227 1,318 1,004 493 154
Total Crown OBEGAL excl NZS Fund 1,801 2,345 128 594 1,422 2,456 4,297 5,526 7,140 7,252 6,250 5,219 1,354 1,048 543 207
Total Crown operating surplus 1,863 2,048 1,705 1,405 1,208 2,286 1,621 7,309 5,931 9,542 8,023 2,559 3,105 3,009 2,779 2,734
Cash Position                                
Core Crown residual cash 3,913 484 2,048 (386) 349 216 1,217 520 3,104 2,985 2,877 908 (3,478) (3,302) (3,447) (3,457)
Debt                                
GSID (excluding settlement cash) 36,236 38,475 37,307 36,580 37,194 36,650 36,617 36,017 35,478 33,903 30,647 31,763 32,498 32,251 35,974 35,499
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund) 25,562 24,635 22,275 21,900 20,293 19,051 16,093 11,613 4,538 (1,817) (7,467) (11,254) (11,337) (11,787) (12,348) (12,970)
Net core Crown debt 25,562 24,635 22,275 21,900 20,293 19,666 17,977 15,569 11,093 8,044 4,109 1,846 4,578 7,272 10,145 13,193
NZS Fund                                
NZS Fund net worth ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  615 1,884 3,956 6,555 9,861 12,973 14,461 17,721 21,152 24,947 29,011
Years ended 30 June - % GDP                                
Revenue and Expenses                                
Core Crown revenue excl NZS Fund 33.5 33.7 31.4 31.5 32.0 31.8 32.8 32.5 33.9 36.3 34.8 34.3 33.3 33.1 32.8 32.6
Core Crown expenses 31.7 32.5 32.4 31.4 30.9 29.8 30.1 29.4 29.8 31.4 32.1 31.8 33.4 33.3 33.2 33.0
Surpluses                                
Total Crown OBEGAL 1.8 2.3 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.3 3.9 4.7 4.5 3.5 2.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1
Total Crown OBEGAL excl NZS Fund 1.8 2.3 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.2 3.9 4.7 4.6 3.7 2.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1
Total Crown operating surplus 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.8 1.2 5.1 3.9 6.1 4.8 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3
Cash Position                                
Core Crown residual cash 4.0 0.5 2.0 (0.3) 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 0.5 (1.9) (1.7) (1.7) (1.6)
Debt                                
GSID (excluding settlement cash) 36.6 37.9 35.6 32.9 31.4 29.1 27.7 25.3 23.5 21.6 18.2 17.6 17.5 16.8 17.8 16.8
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund) 25.8 24.3 21.3 19.7 17.1 15.1 12.2 8.2 3.0 (1.2) (4.4) (6.2) (6.1) (6.1) (6.1) (6.1)
Net core Crown debt 25.8 24.3 21.3 19.7 17.1 15.6 13.6 10.9 7.4 5.1 2.4 1.0 2.5 3.8 5.0 6.2
NZS Fund                                
NZS Fund net worth ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  0.5 1.4 2.8 4.3 6.3 7.7 8.0 9.6 11.0 12.4 13.7

 

Economic Indicators
Years ended 31 March (annual average % change unless stated)

1997
Actual

1998
Actual

 1999 Actual 2000
Actual		 2001 Actual 2002 Actual 2003
Actual		 2004
Actual		 2005
Actual		 2006
Actual		 2007
Actual		 2008 Estimate 2009 Forecast 2010 Forecast 2011 Forecast 2012 Forecast
Private consumption 4.4 2.4 3.1 3.3 1.5 2.8 5.0 6.5 5.3 4.7 2.7 3.6 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.4
Public consumption 1.4 8.1 -0.5 5.7 -2.0 4.0 1.4 4.6 4.0 5.1 4.3 4.6 3.7 3.1 3.3 3.3
Total consumption 3.7 3.7 2.2 3.8 0.7 3.1 4.2 6.0 5.1 4.8 3.1 3.8 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8
Residential investment 4.9 3.0 -13.0 19.5 -13.3 2.0 23.5 14.4 2.7 -4.5 -2.7 4.5 -9.7 -3.1 2.4 3.0
Non-market investment 18.3 14.0 -4.8 13.0 -13.8 21.9 13.7 11.9 15.7 0.9 -4.9 1.9 22.7 4.2 2.0 2.0
Market investment 4.3 -2.2 2.6 6.9 8.0 6.9 2.3 12.2 9.4 9.5 -1.2 6.8 2.8 -0.9 2.1 3.5
Total investment 5.1 0.2 -2.3 10.6 0.4 6.8 7.8 12.8 7.6 5.2 -2.3 5.2 1.1 -0.9 2.2 3.4
Stock change (contribution to growth) -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 1.1 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.6 -0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gross national expenditure 3.6 2.7 0.9 6.3 0.3 3.9 4.8 7.6 5.9 4.2 1.0 5.0 2.0 1.4 2.0 2.2
Exports 4.7 3.9 2.9 7.4 6.3 3.0 7.8 0.9 4.7 -0.1 3.1 3.1 -0.9 4.0 4.4 4.1
Imports 6.4 2.5 2.1 11.3 -0.7 4.0 7.2 12.7 12.5 4.1 -1.7 9.6 0.9 1.3 1.0 2.0
GDP (production measure) 3.5 1.7 0.5 5.3 2.4 3.8 5.1 3.8 3.8 2.7 1.5 3.1 1.5 2.3 3.2 3.0
 - annual % change 2.0 0.3 2.5 6.5 0.7 4.8 4.5 4.8 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.4 1.6 2.9 3.2 2.8
                               
Real GDP per capita 2.0 0.5 -0.3 4.8 1.8 2.9 3.2 1.9 2.4 1.5 0.3 2.1 0.6 1.4 2.2 2.0
Nominal GDP (expenditure basis) 4.9 3.7 1.7 6.0 5.7 7.5 5.1 6.7 6.9 5.0 5.0 7.9 3.6 3.2 4.9 5.0
GDP deflator 1.7 0.6 0.5 0.9 3.1 3.9 0.1 2.7 3.2 2.0 2.5 4.8 2.3 0.8 1.7 2.0
                                 
Employment (full-time equivalent) 2.2 0.0 -0.8 2.0 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.9 3.6 2.7 2.0 1.4 1.4 0.2 0.3 1.0
Unemployment (% March quarter s.a.) 6.5 7.1 7.1 6.3 5.3 5.2 4.8 4.1 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.7 4.4 4.5 4.3
                                 
Wages (average ordinary-time hourly) 3.8 3.3 2.9 2.2 2.4 3.5 2.9 3.4 3.3 4.7 4.8 4.1 4.2 4.7 4.4 4.0
CPI inflation (annual % change) 1.8 1.3 -0.1 1.5 3.1 2.6 2.5 1.5 2.8 3.3 2.5 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.8
Export prices (merchandise, OTI) -4.2 -0.2 3.4 4.0 20.5 3.1 -13.3 -8.2 3.7 1.0 9.1 2.5 7.4 3.1 6.1 4.7
Import price (merchandise, OTI) -3.4 0.8 3.7 4.3 15.3 -0.9 -8.2 -11.6 -2.0 1.8 7.2 -4.8 4.2 5.0 7.5 5.6
                                 
Current account balance - $billion -5.8 -5.4 -4.4 -7.0 -5.1 -3.9 -4.5 -6.7 -10.3 -14.5 -13.5 -13.1 -13.3 -13.7 -14.1 -13.8
Current account balance - % of GDP -6.0 -5.3 -4.2 -6.4 -4.4 -3.1 -3.4 -4.8 -6.9 -9.3 -8.2 -7.4 -7.2 -7.2 -7.1 -6.6
                                 
TWI (March quarter) 68.4 61.2 57.6 54.1 50.5 51.6 60.6 66.9 69.6 68.3 68.8 71.9 68.6 63.1 59.1 56.7
90-day bank bill rate (March quarter) 7.5 8.9 4.5 6.0 6.4 5.0 5.8 5.5 6.9 7.6 7.8 8.8 8.5 7.9 7.9 7.2
10-year bond rate (March quarter) 7.5 6.8 5.7 7.3 6.0 6.7 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1
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