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Budget 2007 Home Page Budget Economic and Fiscal Update [2007]

Additional Information

The following information forms part of the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2007 (Budget Update), released by the Treasury on 17 May 2007. This information provides users of the Budget Update with further detail and should be read in conjunction with the published document. The information contains:

  • Detailed economic forecast information – these tables provide some more detailed breakdowns of the economic forecasts
  • Additional fiscal indicators – estimates of the cyclically-adjusted balance and fiscal impulse
  • Core Crown reconciliations – additional core Crown information including a reconciliation of the operating balance to net core Crown debt and core Crown net cash flows from operations to the operating balance
  • Tax tables – detailed tax revenue and receipts tables comparing Treasury’s forecasts with IRD’s forecasts
  • Contingent liabilities and contingent assets – write-ups of the nature of each item in the tables outlined in the Budget Update Specific Fiscal Risks chapter
  • Crown accounting policies – outline of the specific Crown accounting policies and forecast assumptions. The published GAAP tables only provide a summary.
  • Old GAAP tables – 2006 actual, 2007 previous budget and 2007 estimated actual financial statements in the Old GAAP format. The published GAAP tables in the Budget Update are shown in a new format resulting from the transition to New Zealand International Financial Reporting Standards (“New GAAP”).

Detailed Economic Forecast Information

The following tables provide additional detail on the economic forecasts presented in the Budget Update.

Table 1: Real Gross Domestic Product Chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices
 Actual Seasonally Adjusted
 $ million Annual %
change
Annual
Average
% change
$millionQuarterly %
change
2004Q1 30,103 4.7 3.5 30,361 1.9
2004Q2 29,945 5.3 4.0 30,625 0.9
2004Q3 30,436 4.3 4.2 30,783 0.5
2004Q4 32,180 3.6 4.5 30,911 0.4
2005Q1 30,851 2.5 3.9 31,102 0.6
2005Q2 30,756 2.7 3.3 31,426 1.0
2005Q3 31,117 2.2 2.8 31,460 0.1
2005Q4 32,663 1.5 2.2 31,417 -0.1
2006Q1 31,392 1.8 2.0 31,637 0.7
2006Q2 31,089 1.1 1.6 31,749 0.4
2006Q3 31,486 1.2 1.4 31,832 0.3
2006Q4 33,339 2.1 1.5 32,088 0.8
2007Q1 32,126 2.3 1.7 32,377 0.9
2007Q2 31,926 2.7 2.1 32,603 0.7
2007Q3 32,435 3.0 2.5 32,792 0.6
2007Q4 34,195 2.6 2.7 32,912 0.4
2008Q1 32,788 2.1 2.6 33,043 0.4
2008Q2 32,453 1.7 2.3 33,142 0.3
2008Q3 32,906 1.5 1.9 33,267 0.4
2008Q4 34,734 1.6 1.7 33,430 0.5
2009Q1 33,415 1.9 1.6 33,675 0.7
2009Q2 33,241 2.4 1.8 33,947 0.8
2009Q3 33,827 2.8 2.2 34,199 0.7
2009Q4 35,790 3.0 2.6 34,447 0.7
2010Q1 34,427 3.0 2.8 34,696 0.7
2010Q2 34,236 3.0 3.0 34,962 0.8
2010Q3 34,875 3.1 3.0 35,258 0.8
2010Q4 36,935 3.2 3.1 35,549 0.8
2011Q1 35,550 3.3 3.1 35,827 0.8
2011Q2 35,349 3.3 3.2 36,099 0.8
Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury

Table 2: Consumer Price Index Base: June1999 quarter (=1000)
 IndexQuarterly %
change
Annual %
change
2004Q19280.41.5
2004Q29350.82.4
2004Q39410.62.5
2004Q49490.92.7
2005Q19530.42.8
2005Q29620.92.8
2005Q39731.13.4
2005Q49790.73.2
2006Q19850.63.3
2006Q210001.54.0
2006Q310070.73.5
2006Q41005-0.22.6
2007Q110110.62.6
2007Q210180.71.8
2007Q310240.61.7
2007Q410310.72.6
2008Q110380.62.7
2008Q210440.62.6
2008Q310500.62.5
2008Q410560.62.4
2009Q110630.62.4
2009Q210690.62.3
2009Q310750.62.3
2009Q410810.62.3
2010Q110880.62.4
2010Q210940.62.3
2010Q311000.52.3
2010Q411050.52.2
2011Q111110.52.2
2011Q211170.52.1

Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury

Table 3: Gross Domestic Expenditure and Income
 2006 Actual2007 Estimate 2008 Forecast2009 Forecast2010 Forecast 2011 Forecast
March Year $ mill %vol %pr  $ mill %vol %pr  $ mill %vol %pr $ mill %vol %pr  $ mill %vol %pr  $ mill
Consumption:                
- Private93,182 1.7 2.9 97,551 3.2 1.9 102,576 1.62.2106,5301.6 2.0 110,3711.6 1.9 114,304
- Public 28,545 4.4 3.530,864 4.1 1.7 32,662 3.9 2.6 34,818 4.02.136,9683.5 1.9 39,006
Gross Fixed Capital Formation:                
- Residential 10,399 -2.3 5.3 10,705 3.4 3.1 11,405 -1.9 0.8 11,278 -0.5 0.9 11,313 0.9 1.2 11,553
- Market [*]24,312 -4.6 1.9 23,644 5.8 -2.724,3190.2 0.524,4751.4 1.7 25,2534.21.826,780
- Non-market [**] 2,599 -3.4 4.6 2,629 4.1 5.8 2,899-0.55.23,033-1.75.33,138-0.35.3 3,295
-Total all sectors 37,310-4.03.236,9774.9-0.438,623-0.30.738,7860.81.539,7053.31.5 41,628
Change in Stocks 696   -24   -17   -106   -188   -215
Gross National Expenditure 159,733 -0.8 2.7 165,368 -0.3 -5.9 173,843 1.3 2.2 180,027 2.0 3.4 186,856 1.8 3.0 194,725
Exports 43,290 3.1 6.4 47,448 0.4 -0.4 47,465 3.5 3.6 50,943 4.1 8.3 57,438 4.1 5.7 63,226
Imports 47,469 -1.2 7.4 50,397 4.8 -5.7 49,808 2.2 5.0 53,4420.410.659,356 1.6 6.3 64,120
Expenditure on GDP 155,554 2.1 2.3 162,419 2.9 2.6 171,500 1.6 1.9 177,528 2.7 1.4 184,938 3.0 1.7 193,831
Statistical Discrepancy 331   358   393   417   445   480
Gross Domestic Product155,885   162,777   171,893  177,944   185,384   194,311
Compensation of employees 67,968  6.6 72,473  4.9 75,992  4.8 79,666  4.6 83,346  5.0 87,549
Operating Surplus, net:                 
- Agriculture4,010  15.0 4,612  11.0 5,119  8.0 5,528  9.0 6,026  7.0 6,448
- Other42,847  -0.9 42,442  6.4 45,142  -0.6 44,893  2.2 45,860  4.2 47,764
-Total all sectors 46,857  0.4 47,053  6.8 50,261  0.3 50,421  2.9 51,886  4.5 54,212
Consumption of fixed capital21,069  5.5 22,228  5.5 23,450  5.5 24,740  5.5 26,101  5.5 27,536
Indirect Taxes20,531  5.0 21,564  5.4 22,730  4.1 23,657  3.9 24,591  3.925,554
Less subsidies 540  0.0 540  0.0 540  0.0 540  0.0 540  0.0 540
Gross Domestic Product 155,885  4.4 162,777  5.6 171,893  3.5 177,944  4.2 185,384  4.8 194,311
  • [*] Includes Local Government and Non-profit Organisations
  • [**] Central Government (includes Crown Entities but not SOEs)

 

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