Forecasts (Economic and Fiscal Updates)
Page updated 18 November 2016
The Treasury's forecasts for Government finances and the economy are published in Budget documents titled Economic and Fiscal Updates (EFUs).
The Economic and Fiscal Updates provide a detailed statement of the Government's financial position including updated economic and fiscal forecasts, analysis of the fiscal position and a summary of specific fiscal risks.
These forecasts are usually published twice each year: the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) is published with other Budget documents in May of each year, and the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) is usually produced in December. A Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update is required to be published prior to a general election.
The most recent published forecast is the the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2016 (BEFU) published with the Budget on 26 May 2016.
The next forecast will be Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2016 (HYEFU) which will be published by December 2016. The Treasury has issued a media advisory: Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2016 Media Lock-Up (18 November 2016)
See the Archive of Economic and Fiscal Updates for forecasts back to 1997.
Treasury's Forecasting Performance
See the information release on Treasury's Forecasting Performance.
Research and Policy Publications
The Treasury has published a number of research and policy publications on forecasting issues:
- An Analysis of Tax Revenue Forecast Errors (March 2007)
- Treasury's Forecasting Performance: A Head-to-Head Comparison (July 2006)
- Past, Present and Future Developments in New Zealand's Terms of Trade (July 2006)
- A Comparison of the NZTM and FPS Models of the NZ Economy (September 2003)
- Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Consumption Expenditure in New Zealand? (September 2003)
- A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy (June 2002)