Forecasts (Economic and Fiscal Updates)
Page updated 29 Feb 2012
The Treasury's forecasts for Government finances and the economy are usually published twice a year in Budget documents titled Economic and Fiscal Updates (EFUs).
The Economic and Fiscal Updates provide a detailed statement of the Government's financial position including updated economic and fiscal forecasts, analysis of the fiscal position and a summary of specific fiscal risks.
These forecasts are published usually twice each year: the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) is published with other Budget documents in May of each year, and the Half-Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) is usually produced in December. A Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update is required to be published prior to a general election.
The most recent published forecast is the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2011 published on 25 October 2011.
Note: The Budget Policy Statement (BPS) 2012 (16 February 2012) includes an Economic Outlook section prepared by the Treasury as a brief refresh of its most recent economic and fiscal forecasts in the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2011.
The next forecast in an Economic and Fiscal Update will be the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) 2012 to be published conjointly with Budget 2012 on 24 May 2012.
See the Archive of Economic and Fiscal Updatesfor forecasts from 2000 to 2011.
Research and Policy Publications
The Treasury has published a number of research and policy publications on forecasting issues:
- An Analysis of Tax Revenue Forecast Errors (March 2007)
- Treasury's Forecasting Performance: A Head-to-Head Comparison (July 2006)
- Past, Present and Future Developments in New Zealands Terms of Trade (July 2006)
- A Comparison of the NZTM and FPS Models of the NZ Economy (September 2003)
- Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Consumption Expenditure in New Zealand? (September 2003)
- A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy (June 2002)
See the information release on Treasury's Forecasting Performance.
