Forecasts (Economic and Fiscal Updates)

Page updated 18 Dec 2007

The Treasury's forecasts for Government finances and the economy are published twice a year in Budget documents titled Economic and Fiscal Updates (EFUs).

The Economic and Fiscal Updates provide a detailed statement of the Government's financial position including updated economic and fiscal forecasts, analysis of the fiscal position and a summary of specific fiscal risks.

These forecasts are published twice each year: The Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) is published with other Budget documents in May of each year, and the Half-Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) is produced in December.

The most recent published forecast is the HYEFU 2007. It was published along with the Budget Policy Statement 2008 in the same hard copy publication.

See the Archive of Economic and Fiscal Updates for forecasts from 2000 to 2007.

Research and Policy Publications

The Treasury has published a number of research and policy publications on forecasting issues:

• An Analysis of Tax Revenue Forecast Errors (March 2007)
• Treasury’s Forecasting Performance: A Head-to-Head Comparison (July 2006)
• Past, Present and Future Developments in New Zealand’s Terms of Trade (July 2006)
  
• A Comparison of the NZTM and FPS Models of the NZ Economy (September 2003)
• Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Consumption Expenditure in New Zealand? (September 2003)
• A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy (June 2002)

See the information release on Treasury's Forecasting Performance