Forecasts (Economic and Fiscal Updates)
Page updated 16 Dec 2015
The Treasury's forecasts for Government finances and the economy are usually published twice a year in Budget documents titled Economic and Fiscal Updates (EFUs).
The Economic and Fiscal Updates provide a detailed statement of the Government's financial position including updated economic and fiscal forecasts, analysis of the fiscal position and a summary of specific fiscal risks.
These forecasts are published usually twice each year: the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) is published with other Budget documents in May of each year, and the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) is usually produced in December. A Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update is required to be published prior to a general election.
The most recent published forecast is the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) 2015 which was published on 15 December 2015.
The next forecast will be the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) 2016 which will be published with the Budget on a date that is yet to be announced by the Minister of Finance.
See the Archive of Economic and Fiscal Updates for forecasts back to 1997.
Treasury's Forecasting Performance
See the information release on Treasury's Forecasting Performance.
Research and Policy Publications
The Treasury has published a number of research and policy publications on forecasting issues:
- An Analysis of Tax Revenue Forecast Errors (March 2007)
- Treasury's Forecasting Performance: A Head-to-Head Comparison (July 2006)
- Past, Present and Future Developments in New Zealand?s Terms of Trade (July 2006)
- A Comparison of the NZTM and FPS Models of the NZ Economy (September 2003)
- Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Consumption Expenditure in New Zealand? (September 2003)
- A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy (June 2002)