Annex 3
Projection Assumptions out to 2025/26
The economic and fiscal forecasts, from 2011/12 to 2015/16, are detailed in the 2012 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update. The projection period begins in 2016/17 and ends in 2025/26. These post-forecast fiscal projections are based on the long-run technical and policy assumptions outlined below. The projection model can be found on the Treasury website at http://www.treasury.govt.nz/government/fiscalstrategy/model.
| June years[8] | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ….. | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | Projections | ||||||||||
| Labour force | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| Unemployment rate** | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | |
| Employment | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| Labour productivity growth*** | 0.6 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
| Real GDP | 1.8 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | |
| Consumers price index (CPI) (annual % change) |
1.2 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
| Government 5-year bonds (average % rate) | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | |
| Nominal average hourly wage | 3.1 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | |
* Annual average % change unless otherwise stated
** Unemployment as a percentage of the labour force (average for year ended June)
*** Hours worked measure
Sources: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand
Notes
- [8]Note that the economic forecasts in the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update are based on a March year.
