Show: Page with Right Column
Annex 3
Projection Assumptions
The economic and fiscal forecasts, from 2010/11 to 2014/15, are detailed in the 2011Budget Economic and Fiscal Update. The projection period begins in 2015/16 and ends in 2024/25. These post-forecast fiscal projections are based on the long-run technical and policy assumptions outlined below. The projection model can be found on the Treasury website at http://www.treasury.govt.nz/government/fiscalstrategy/model
| June year[1] | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | ….. | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | Projections | ||||||||||
| Labour force | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| Unemployment rate** | 6.7 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | |
| Employment | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| Labour productivity growth*** | -1.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | |
| Real GDP | 0.7 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
| Consumer price index (CPI) (annual % change) |
5.3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
| Government 5-year bonds (average % rate) | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | |
| Nominal average hourly wage | 2.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | |
* Annual average % change unless otherwise stated
** Unemployment as a percentage of the labour force
*** Hours worked measure
Sources: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand
Notes
- [1]Note that the economic forecasts in the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update are based on a March year.
