Annex 3
Projection Assumptions
The economic and fiscal forecasts, from 2009/10 to 2013/14, are detailed in the 2010 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update. The projection period begins in 2014/15 and ends in 2023/24. These post-forecast fiscal projections are based on long-run technical and policy assumptions outlined below. The projection model can be found on the Treasury website at http://www.treasury.govt.nz/government/fiscalstrategy/model.
| June year[3] | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | ….. | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | Projections | ||||||||||
| Labour force | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | |
| Unemployment rate** | 7.0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | |
| Employment | -1.7 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | |
| Labour productivity growth*** | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
| Real GDP | 0.9 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 | |
| Consumer price index (CPI) (annual % change) |
2.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
| Government 5-year bonds (average % rate) | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | |
| Nominal average hourly wage | 3.8 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | |
* Annual average % change unless otherwise stated
** Level of unemployment
*** Hours worked measure
Sources: The Treasury, Statistics New ZealandNotes
- [3]Note that the economic forecasts in the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update are based on a March year.
