Annex 1 - Long-term Fiscal Objectives and Short-term Fiscal Intentions
As discussed in the text, the Government will be revising the long-term fiscal objectives for publication in the 2009 Fiscal Strategy Report. As a result, the current long-term fiscal objectives are unchanged from the 2008 Fiscal Strategy Report.
Table A1 sets out the revised short-term intentions if the government were to take no action. The table also includes the short-term intentions published in the 2008 Fiscal Strategy Report. As discussed in the text, the fiscal forecasts are outside the range that the Government considers prudent and it will be taking steps to ensure debt and net worth do not deteriorate to that extent.
| 2009 Budget Policy Statement | 2008 Fiscal Strategy Report |
|---|---|
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Operating balance Based on operating amounts for the 2009 Budget, and indicative amounts for the 2010 and 2011 Budgets, the OBEGAL is forecast to be -0.6% of GDP in 2008/09, decreasing to -6.3% of GDP by 2012/13. |
Operating balance Based on operating amounts for the 2008 Budget, and indicative amounts for the 2009 and 2010 Budgets, the OBEGAL excluding NZS Fund retained revenue is forecast to be 0.7% of GDP in 2008/09, decreasing to 0.1% of GDP by 2011/12. This remains consistent with the long-term objective for the operating balance. |
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Debt Total debt (including Reserve Bank Settlement Cash) is forecast to be 43.6% of GDP in 2012/13. Gross sovereign-issued debt including Settlement Cash is forecast to be 36% of GDP in 2012/13. Excluding Settlement Cash, gross sovereign-issued debt is forecast to be 33.1% of GDP in 2012/13. |
Debt Total debt (including Reserve Bank Settlement Cash) is forecast to be 25.9% of GDP in 2011/12. Gross sovereign-issued debt including Settlement Cash is forecast to be 19.6% of GDP in 2011/12. Excluding Settlement Cash, gross sovereign-issued debt is forecast to be 16.8% of GDP in 2011/12. The Government will set forecast new operating and capital spending amounts over the next three years that are consistent with the long-term objective for debt. |
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Expenses Total Crown expenses are forecast to be 46.1% of GDP in 2012/13. Core Crown expenses are forecast to average 35.1% over the forecast period and be 35.2% of GDP in 2012/13. This assumes new operating expense amounts of $1.75 billion per annum for the 2009 Budget, growing at 2% thereafter (GST exclusive). |
Expenses Total Crown expenses are forecast to be 42.4% of GDP in 2011/12. Core Crown expenses are forecast to average 32.9% over the forecast period and be 33% of GDP in 2011/12. This assumes new operating expense amounts of $1.75 billion per annum for the 2009 Budget, $1.79 billion per annum for the 2010 Budget and $1.82 billion per annum for the 2011 Budget (GST exclusive). |
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Revenues Total Crown revenues are forecast to be 43.2% of GDP in 2012/13. Within this, core Crown revenues are forecast to be 31.8% of GDP in 2012/13. The fiscal forecasts incorporate personal tax reductions. As a result, core Crown tax-to-GDP is forecast to decline from 30.6% in 2008/09 to 28.6% in 2012/13. |
Revenues Total Crown revenues are forecast to be 42.5% of GDP in 2011/12. Within this, core Crown revenues are forecast to be 32.7% of GDP in 2011/12. Budget 2008 introduces personal tax reductions. |
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Net worth Total Crown net worth is forecast to be 41.1% of GDP in 2012/13. Core Crown net worth is forecast to be 15% of GDP in 2012/13. |
Net worth Total Crown net worth is forecast to be 52.5% of GDP in 2011/12. Core Crown net worth is forecast to be 28.4% of GDP in 2011/12. |
